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February 20-21, 2019 -- Potential Overrunning Thump/Ice


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00z HRRR coming in rather impressive     

A lot of great analysis in this post, very much appreciated!

Quick note on this system... Recall this area of frozen precipitation will be occurring as it collides with a 500mb ridge (this is not unimportant). The anti-cyclone aloft provides flow out of the wes

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16 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

I'll admit I'm dumbfounded.  Models mostly show snow increases and mt holly decreases snowfall forecasts across the board.  What am I missing?

I am a bit confused myself, they went the complete opposite way the models did. I would suspect if the models at least hold then Mt.Holly will probably bump totals back up by tomorrow morning.

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

I am a bit confused myself, they went the complete opposite way the models did. I would suspect if the models at least hold then Mt.Holly will probably bump totals back up by tomorrow morning.

I think they are thinking mid-levels will warm quicker than models depicting

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I do think the new NAM could be correct in regards to totals in NNJ if there wasn’t that dry air in place. That would cut off probably around 1-2hrs if possible accumulations. But when it comes down, it’ll come down hard.

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3 minutes ago, ThunderSnow4 said:

Current radar seems further north than most modeling at this CURRENT hour. Can anyone confirm or care to comment further? 

Radar hallucinations have begun. I have seen multiple people on other sites post that the radar looks further south than current modeling and now this post haha.

 

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5 minutes ago, WxWCMM said:

Radar hallucinations have begun. I have seen multiple people on other sites post that the radar looks further south than current modeling and now this post haha.

 

Was a simple observation of my untrained eye. But welcome to 33! A great first post by you! 

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7 minutes ago, WxWCMM said:

Radar hallucinations have begun. I have seen multiple people on other sites post that the radar looks further south than current modeling and now this post haha.

 

 

Every "radar something or other" post is not necessarily a "hallucination".

There are times where the radar DOES look different than modeling, because models are not always correct.

However, it has become a tool for weenies, especially when a storm is going out to sea.

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7 minutes ago, ThunderSnow4 said:

Was a simple observation of my untrained eye. But welcome to 33! A great first post by you! 

No worries, thanks for being a good sport about it.

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  • 33andrain changed the title to February 20-21, 2019 -- Potential Overrunning Thump/Ice
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