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Potential Overrunning Thump/Ice 2/20-2/21

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I would say the nam looks good but prob would cut the precip totals in half as doesn’t the nam have a bias of to much precip on there maps? This would fall in line tho for 1-3 inches for the metro imo. 

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The strong band of snow will die as it reaches the city and here is what OKX is expecting for the event, giving how things are going this year, i think i might get a C-1 at best. 

1.PNG

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21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

First winter storm watch for me on the season 

C07FC754-ACF5-4E5E-A1EF-CBEBE658312E.png

 

Nice to see one of those again, lol.  So nice that I'm going to copy/paste the text, since it's been so rare this season...now let's just hope this doesn't underperform, like so many other storms have, although I do like having the Euro and NAM on our side.  Did I miss the UK?  

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Elkton,
Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Glassboro,
Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, and Millville
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, Delaware, and
  northeast Maryland.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick,
Trenton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester,
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale,
Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northwest New Jersey and
  southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and
  northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm watch

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having a real hard time understanding the 12-km NAM. Its running precip right into a surface high . Oh and there is a strong ridge aloft. 

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2 minutes ago, CCB! said:

I know that while abnormal, we can snow under a ridge with a dynamic system in Feb.... But heavy precip running into a 1035mb HP is... odd. There would need to be some rapid saturation of the column.

 

image.png

 

 

The Nam is probably too wet for the area. The 3k Nam is more realistic along with the 12z euro 

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GFS continues to be south of all other guidance with high snowfall totals, showing 8-10 inches in DC

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2 minutes ago, bscott4293 said:

GFS continues to be south of all other guidance with high snowfall totals, showing 8-10 inches in DC

10 inches of snow ?

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