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Seasonal sea ice forecast skills and predictability of the KMA's GloSea5


Authors:   Byoung Woong An,  Sang Min Lee,  Pil-Hun Chang,  KiRyong Kang, and Yoon Jae Kim


First Published:   7th December, 2018



Ensemble sea ice forecasts of the Arctic Ocean conducted with the Korea Meteorological Administration's coupled global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is verified. To investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the seasonal projection of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, a set of ensemble potential predictability is assessed. It shows significance for all lead months except anomalous around East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea during summer months. However, during the rapidly thawing and freezing season, initial states lose its predictability and increase uncertainties in the prediction. The probability skill metrics show the summer sea ice prediction which strongly depends on the sea ice thickness interacting with the accuracy of the snow depth. We found the forecast skill is determined primarily by the timing of sea ice drift (i.e., Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar drift) and sea ice formation by freshwater flux in the East Siberian Sea. Therefore, capturing the sea ice thickness state effectively is the key process for skillful estimation of Arctic sea ice. In spite of the uncertainties in atmospheric conditions, this system provides skillful Arctic seasonal sea ice extent predictions up to six months.


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