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March 3-4, 2019 -- Back to Back Snow?


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I’m sorry guys, I’m emotional tonight. Not just because it’s snowing but because I lost my brother to drugs last November. He loved snow just as much I do. We used to make home made videos together wh

I am under the influence that this will be a potentially major event for the NYC metro. Favorable trends have occurred over the last week for multiple model cycles on both global and mesoscale modelin

The chain of causality for this event is quite interesting, and ultimately, the tertiary cause of the improvements in track denoted in modelling is a slight/subtle correction toward more geopotential

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3 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

 

Just based on how the 0 line goes up and then back down, I would say it probably goes to sleet and then back to snow.

Obviously, it's just a guess and I would need a full sounding to tell.

But like @PB GFI said, it's a pretty big outlier.

 

 

Here's my 0 line.20190302_130550.png.dd4f41fdf1d27af078a8f5fad6226e21.png

 

When the precip shield heads ENE I don't buy the bump in the midlevels .I believe it holds 

ecmwf_ptype_neng_8.png

20190302_130605.png

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16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro! 

 

It’s a lot of rain. Why the excitement?

 

and euro was horrible for last night. Best was NAM and HRRR. Only models that had LI getting 4-5”

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Well I know im all alone in hoping the Euro is correct.. lol    12z guidance overall has bumped NW but its interesting to see how far apart the Euro is in comparison to the UK inside of 36 hrs. 

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Consider this...it's March 2nd and many of us just had our second biggest snow event of the season earlier today; 3-5" or so. It's been a tough, tough winter for anyone within 40 miles of the city. King Euro is waffling around like a smell in the wind as an outlier, but which still gives NYC a run at its biggest snow storm of the season.

 

There...feel better? ;) 

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The SLP on the ECMWF isn't much different than other data, but it seems the SLP is more "diffuse" with less concentration, and possibly slower intensification, which leads to more expansive mid level warmth. Ultimately this is not a track issue but more-so a function of intensity. 

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Just now, 33andrain said:

Consider this...it's March 2nd and many of us just had our second biggest snow event of the season earlier today; 3-5" or so. King Euro is waffling around like a smell in the wind as an outlier, which still gives NYC a run at its biggest snow storm of the season.

 

There...feel better? ;) 

 

Can you stop gloating after one run of a model which screws many of us? Not sure what your deal is 

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6 minutes ago, snywx said:

Well I know im all alone in hoping the Euro is correct.. lol    12z guidance overall has bumped NW but its interesting to see how far apart the Euro is in comparison to the UK inside of 36 hrs. 

@snywx...you've been a great addition to this forum. I like the way you accept the inevitable that is your distant position from the more populated areas, and joke about it. That's a sign of a healthy community. Posters in East Hampton should be able to consort with posters in Scranton, PA...with respect and genuine interest in each experiencing snow. Hope you stick with us. 👍

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4 minutes ago, Psv said:

 

It’s a lot of rain. Why the excitement?

 

and euro was horrible for last night. Best was NAM and HRRR. Only models that had LI getting 4-5”

Incorrect. Euro did real well last night. 

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2 minutes ago, Psv said:

 

Can you stop gloating after one run of a model which screws many of us? Not sure what your deal is 

 

1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

@snywx...you've been a great addition to this forum. I like the way you accept the inevitable that is your distant position from the more populated areas, and joke about it. That's a sign of a healthy community. Posters in East Hampton should be able to consort with posters in Scranton, PA,,,with respect and genuine interest in each experiencing snow. Hope you stick with us. 👍

How fitting...see the part in bold. I was thinking specifically of you.

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

@snywx...you've been a great addition to this forum. I like the way you accept the inevitable that is your distant position from the more populated areas, and joke about it. That's a sign of a healthy community. Posters in East Hampton should be able to consort with posters in Scranton, PA,,,with respect and genuine interest in each experiencing snow. Hope you stick with us. 👍

 

Right, and this place is so much better than "somewhere else" regarding storms.

At another forum not to be mentioned, there are so many "IMBY" posters who flip out if their backyard is not in the jackpot.

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