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Eastern US March 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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35 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Pulled from my facebook just now: 

"For the NYC Metro Region, a series of fast moving low pressure systems from west to east across the country will continue to encounter much colder than normal air masses as they move into and across our region over the next ten to fourteen days. We have had a relatively easy winter, but the latest maps do indicate Old Man Winter making up some for what has been missing thus far this season. Now these are not big nor'easters of the type which develop as a result of major cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard but rather nickel and dime fast clipper type systems whose effects do not last long but if it is cold enough they can drop a quick 2-4" of snow as they pass through. One will be moving through late tonight and drop whatever it is able to on us before 7AM tomorrow, probably less than an inch. But the NAM mesoscale model shows the next one moving across our area late tomorrow night dropping perhaps as much as 2-4" with greater amounts possible not far to our south. The next of these is late Sunday into early Monday, perhaps a somewhat more potent system but temperatures may also be just a tad bit higher so accumulations at this point are questionable as there could also be some rain and sleet with that system. Maps showed the potential for extreme cold for a good part of next week following the Sunday night storm system with overnight low temperatures in the teens to around 20 and daytime highs in the 20s to around 30, very cold for early March. The next storm system in the parade was timing out for around March 8th-9th with perhaps the last of this series somtime around March 11th. Bundle up!!"

WX/PT

What is your Fb page?

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Looks like Spring will have to wait til at least late month if this is correct in interrupting the SPV/TVP coupling!

 

gfs_nh-namindex_20190228.png

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Why loop back into COD when you can go from 3 to 2 instead ;)

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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I think the region highlighted in green is the key to watch over the next ten days, and where the models continually keep messing up the extended as they get rid of the exorbitant current snowpack due to climo bias. Once within ten days it suddenly trends much colder on output. In any case, until the snow here melts out, look for extended forecasts to keep busting too warm and for anomalies in this area to keep dropping vs. normal. This region keeps allowing high pressures to slide across the country with OOMPH relative to time of year, keeping us sufficiently cold for snow threats. The Great Lakes are going to be icing up spectacularly for the next ten days or more as well and as that translates into ongoing output, expect anomalies to become substantially more negative for the Mid Atlantic / NE (IMO).

gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

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Just now, samsara2 said:

I think the region highlighted in green is the key to watch over the next ten days, and where the models continually keep messing up the extended as they get rid of the exorbitant current snowpack due to climo bias. Once within ten days it suddenly trends much colder on output. In any case, until the snow here melts out, look for extended forecasts to keep busting too warm and for anomalies in this area to keep dropping vs. normal. This region keeps allowing high pressures to slide across the country with OOMPH relative to time of year, keeping us sufficiently cold for snow threats. The Great Lakes are going to be icing up spectacularly for the next ten days or more as well and as that translates into ongoing output, expect anomalies to become substantially more negative for the Mid Atlantic / NE (IMO).

gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

I was wondering why the models miss this sort of thing beyond 10 days? I thought the existing snowcover was part of the input that they use for their calculations, and would be a factor in their long range forecasts. 

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54 minutes ago, Weathergeek said:

Looks like Spring will have to wait til at least late month if this is correct in interrupting the SPV/TVP coupling!

 

gfs_nh-namindex_20190228.png

Gfs has a few storms just like last March. I agree about spring being delayed.

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5 minutes ago, Oglem said:

I was wondering why the models miss this sort of thing beyond 10 days? I thought the existing snowcover was part of the input that they use for their calculations, and would be a factor in their long range forecasts. 

Models also include a climo bias and this probably negates snowpack in this region beyond the intermediate range as it is not normal by early March for it to be so deep or widespread. At least that is my opinion. 

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11 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

FB_IMG_1551415199713.jpg

Don't be a backyard hoarder, post the national map -- WOW.

 

gem_asnow_us_40.png

 

Also I think the sea ice business in Nova Scotia is entirely relevant, look at how the deepest totals seem to spawn from immediately offshore where the 0C line is. I am sure it is not the sole determinant but I think it does have a big impact on our weather when something anomalous like what is currently happening occurs. Boston is as far from DC as it is Halifax. And 0C surface temps are now plunging S all the way past Halifax' latitude! We will see how cold things get before insolation takes over completely, but when the sun does get higher and SWE melt occurs, there should be at least one significant pulse of additional cold surface water. 

 

natlanti.c.gif

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March 2019 opens with the least ice the Bering has ever seen for the date, we are now looking to leap ahead of 2018's records. I imagine this is fuel for epic continual -EPO blockage.

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-28 at 11.56.33 PM.png

 

Look at Bering. For March this is absurd.

 

gfs_T2m_namer_1.png

gfs_T2ma_namer_1.png

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This is a fun development. Parts of the Rockies have more snow-water equivalent in their current snowpack than they average FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR in actual precipitation. The NV / CA Sierras are 200-300% of normal in spots! Although I think the below might be wrong, since IDK how SWE would surpass actual QPF. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-03-01 at 12.43.49 AM.png

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Might challenge 2014's record high if the next few days verify as forecast. We should be in top 3 since 70s regardless. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-03-01 at 5.26.41 AM.png

 

From 2014 --

 

The ice coverage has set an early March record, topping March ice cover in the previous two standard-bearing years, 1979 and 1994:

  • March 5, 1979: 75.98 percent
  • March 4, 1994: 85.78 percent
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Good morning! Welcome to MARCHUARY!
The March Lion will be roaring in full force this week!

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