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Eastern US March 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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9 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Major yes

Eps control is showing a major one so I guess it’s a possibility:)

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2 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

Or anything other than that exact configurarion in the Atlantic

Current as in currently or what’s modeled in the next 8 days?

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1 minute ago, Henry said:

Eps control is showing a major one so I guess it’s a possibility:)

Things would have to change DRAMATICALLY to even consider it a possibility. 

This winter has been all about expecting one thing (usually a block-buster) then having it slowly fade as time moves up because of simple persistence. 

Or it has been because of a "Good" pattern emerging like models advertised, but lack of cold/phasing or suppression pushing systems further to the south. 

Would it be amazing to have a KU at the end of March? Hell yes! Is it going to happen? Learning from this winter tells me not to get any hopes up right now.

Things need to change in order for me to have some sense of confidence in something Extreme, or even notable, to happen around the 20th. 

 

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9 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

Or anything other than that exact configurarion in the Atlantic

I agree

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14 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

The setup modeled in the Atlantic for that potential system is literally the worst it could possibly be. I couldn’t draw a worse look if you wanted a big phasing bomb

Okay, Cheers to spring then

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I can't necessarily buy into this storm (and it being that big no less) this far out, but I said the same thing about Pi Day 2017. That then proceeded to dump nearly 30"on me in a 15 hour time frame 

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34 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

The setup modeled in the Atlantic for that potential system is literally the worst it could possibly be. I couldn’t draw a worse look if you wanted a big phasing bomb

Agree

 

Just give me a little snow

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

we don't get good late snowstorms without a -nao

This. Feel this is almost a must. At least right at the coast. 

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36 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

The setup modeled in the Atlantic for that potential system is literally the worst it could possibly be. I couldn’t draw a worse look if you wanted a big phasing bomb

Yea. I thought about that. I agree. But we can certainly still see measurable snow if things line up properly.

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Well the one thing we certainly need to consider is how many times this winter we have seen big solutions from a distance only to become minor events as we move closer in time. It would not surprise me if the same applied here. Like in my previous post I would like to see where things sit 4-5 days from now and even then plenty of uncertainty will remain.

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I feel the first week of April will offer us a last hoorah for winter.  1982 and 2003 come to mind amongst many other smaller events

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Oh my, Great Googly Moogly, 12z EPS control between f228-f252!!!

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2 hours ago, HibernateUntilWinter said:

That euro run was so anomalous. Climatology out the window

Well said!

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The keys to any winter in NYC is the pna/epo/enso state. Going forward, no other index should matter. We got all our snow this winter when those two areas improved. The nao continues to be to difficult to forecast and not very prominent in our winters anymore. 

I don’t have Uncles fact sheets  but I would think there are decades of little to no -NAO’s and decades where there were more -NAO periods.  There has to be a reason we have been in such a drought regarding this telleconnection. Is it cyclical?  I would think at some point it will go into our favor again.  

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2 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

I don’t have Uncles fact sheets  but I would think there are decades of little to no -NAO’s and decades where there were more -NAO periods.  There has to be a reason we have been in such a drought regarding this telleconnection. Is it cyclical?  I would think at some point it will go into our favor again.  

I believe it goes in cycles, we haven’t had a dominant winter of it since 2010-2011. It has become a pointless telleconnection imo. 

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To further the pna point, if we had some type of ridge out west in February nyc would have had 10-20 inches of snow. Instead, the trough out west forced storms under Chicago and we watched the thump fizzle out. 

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