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Eastern US March 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Relatively warm in wantagh at 58 considering the strong onshore flow. Headed to the N.Y. botanical gardens to enjoy warmer weather 

Enjoy. Many more flowers are in bloom than last weekend. The Japanese Apricot trees have begun to bloom, but peak bloom still lies ahead.

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Looks like another potential coastal storm for our area is down the tubes. I will give it until the 12z runs tomorrow but otherwise this threat looks like its over as of now.

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This afternoon, the temperature soared to 70° under bright sunshine in New York City. More and more spring flowers are now coming out in the New York Botanical Garden.

 

Some photos:

 

NYBG03302019-1.jpg

 

NYBG03302019-3.jpg

 

NYBG03302019-9.jpg

 

NYBG03302019-8.jpg

 

NYBG03302019-7.jpg

 

NYBG03302019-5.jpg

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like another potential coastal storm for our area is down the tubes. I will give it until the 12z runs tomorrow but otherwise this threat looks like its over as of now.

18z guidance may have something to say about that. But, still no major difference for our area. Might clip Boston though

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Marine influence ruined the day here in Jersey City. Made it to 64 and dropped to 55 with a brisk onshore wind.

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1 minute ago, Reef said:

Marine influence ruined the day here in Jersey City. Made it to 64 and dropped to 55 with a brisk onshore wind.

 

Wow, I made it to 73 here and it's 66 now

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Springlike warmth prevailed across much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. High temperatures included: Albany: 69°; Allentown: 77°; Atlantic City: 68°; Baltimore: 77°; Binghamton: 62°; Boston: 67°; Bridgeport: 63°; Harrisburg: 76°; Hartford: 70°; Islip: 62°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 71°; Philadelphia: 75°; Poughkeepsie: 71°; Providence: 63°; Scranton: 72°; Trenton: 76°; Washington, DC: 79°; Wilmington, DE: 76°; and, Worcester: 64°.

 

Tomorrow will see cooler air push into the region. Monday, will start April off with colder than normal readings.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

 

The SOI was -6.94 today.

 

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.931. The AO has now been positive for 51 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

 

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, it is likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up somewhat warmer than normal even as the period starts on a colder than normal note.

 

On March 29, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.568 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly higher than the March 28-adjusted figure of 0.525.

 

Despite today's warmth, March will very likely finish 0.7° to 0.9° below normal. However, April will likely be warmer than normal and possibly several degrees warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

 

It also remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

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FWIW...In my opinion, based off what I have gleaned from the 18z 12km NAM guidance, it seems that the 4/2-4/3 potential could very well track NNE from just east of the OBX (75.00° W) to just off of Southeastern Long Island (72.00° W), there is also some indication of this solution on the 12z EPS Minimum MSLP. 

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4 hours ago, Analog96 said:

 

Wow, I made it to 73 here and it's 66 now

My area usually fights off Marine influence due to the protection of long island...but sometimes with the right direction, we cool off dramatically. Right across the Newark Bay , they were in the upper 60s while I was in the mid 50s.

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Arctic sea ice plunged, now at record low. Super Nino raring to go IMO. Combination = possible new record minimum this summer. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-03-31 at 4.35.30 AM.png

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Getting about ready to just hang up the hat on this potential threat for Wednesday with nothing more than potential showers Tuesday night. Will need to see today's guidance, though 

 

Also interesting is the risk of fire weather, if Binghamton's AFD for the week ahead is correct.

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