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Eastern US March 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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NAO and AO are going negative

 

This always happens right after winter


SMH

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3 hours ago, Jakkel138 said:

DT says a negative NAO can't happen when the QBO is positive.

 

 

The QBO has nothing to do with retrograding blocking. Jan 2016 was a strongly positive QBO and we all know what happened then

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Looks like the weeklies run on an 8 week lag. 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_8.png

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1 hour ago, Newman said:

Has anyone here ever attended a Skywarn training session? I'm planning on going to one this weekend.

Yeah, it was informative, but many years back now. So I'm not sure if the curriculum is the same. When I went, much of it is spent on identifying severe storm cloud formations (shelf/wall/funnel/tornado delineation) - They'll also spend time on what constitutes an event worth reporting & how to take measurements regardless of event (snowfall, hail, ice). They also went over basic storm safety, what not to do when a storm is approaching etc.

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19° this morning... Ridiculous

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30 for a low in wantagh but 27 near by at KFRG. It’s harder to get the wind to go calm closer to the water. I left kale outside last night and it seems fine. 

The snow in north and South Carolina this morning shows what could have been if this storm were closer

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3 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

NAO and AO are going negative

 

This always happens right after winter


SMH

 

If i recall correctly, and @donsutherland1 can correct me, i believe a -NAO in summer can portend AN temps

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13 minutes ago, Psv said:

 

If i recall correctly, and @donsutherland1 can correct me, i believe a -NAO in summer can portend AN temps

 Yes in the summer

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6 hours ago, 33andrain said:

The only sticking I want to see from here on out is Spring temps. Good grief Spring sucks in the NY Metro area. I miss living in DC and even the Philly burbs, where there is actually a prolonged period of temps in the 60s and 70s before the sweltering of Summer.

I went to college right outside Baltimore and the springs there were incredible. Lots and lots of sunny and low 70s in April. I would go home for a weekend leaving fully leafed out trees to stick season on Long Island. They also do well with severe weather, some of the best thunderstorms I have wintnessed were in the 4 years I lived down there. I happened to catch the biggest single snow event I have every witnessed there as well, 33” during PD2. 

Overall I find the weather more interesting on Long Island with a higher frequency of larger coastals. MD misses the goods allot in Miller Bs. A classic example was Jan 01 with flurries in MD and 20” at home.

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13 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Negative NAO on the Euro

 

LOL

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

If everything went right could it introduce anything wintry down to the coastal plain?

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6 hours ago, Newman said:

Has anyone here ever attended a Skywarn training session? I'm planning on going to one this weekend.

Yes. I took one around twelve years ago that my emergency management agency hosted and just took the online training session about two weeks ago to refresh. The training is definitely worth the time and you will get alot out of it.

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4 hours ago, CCB! said:

Yeah, it was informative, but many years back now. So I'm not sure if the curriculum is the same. When I went, much of it is spent on identifying severe storm cloud formations (shelf/wall/funnel/tornado delineation) - They'll also spend time on what constitutes an event worth reporting & how to take measurements regardless of event (snowfall, hail, ice). They also went over basic storm safety, what not to do when a storm is approaching etc.

It is pretty much the same now. I took the online training session a couple of week ago just to refresh since it had been about twelve years since I originally took it. It is nice to be able to do it online (webinar) which is something that was not available years ago.

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2 hours ago, Psv said:

 

If i recall correctly, and @donsutherland1 can correct me, i believe a -NAO in summer can portend AN temps

During mid-summer, the NAO can have an inverse relationship with mean temperatures due to the shortness of the wave lengths. This inverse relationship is most prominent during July.

 

The following table provides mean temperatures for New York City (Central Park) based on the June 1981-August 2018 timeframe:

 

NAOJJA1981-2018.jpg

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

During mid-summer, the NAO can have an inverse relationship with mean temperatures due to the shortness of the wave lengths. This inverse relationship is most prominent during July.

 

The following table provides mean temperatures for New York City (Central Park) based on the June 1981-August 2018 timeframe:

 

NAOJJA1981-2018.jpg

 

 

thanks don!

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5 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

Negative NAO on the Euro

 

LOL

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

This 4/12 potential "could" be a sneaky one for central PA.

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15 hours ago, Jakkel138 said:

DT says a negative NAO can't happen when the QBO is positive.

 

 

Then how does he explain what happened last Thanksgiving lol.

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