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mbaer1970

Eastern US April 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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We are two days into April, which I believe will be quite an active month here in the Eastern US. 

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1 hour ago, mbaer1970 said:

We are two days into April, which I believe will be quite an active month here in the Eastern US. 

 

I agree with you. It looks very stormy.

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The FV3 strikes again!

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

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Current temp is 64 here. Nice day.

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63 and had a gust to 42 MPH so far.

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Temp up to 66 here now. Pretty windy as well.

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18 hours ago, ru848789 said:

The FV3 strikes again!

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

 

And again.  Can't wait for all this snow!

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

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11 hours ago, ru848789 said:

 

And again.  Can't wait for all this snow!

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

Can't wait for probably none of it to actually verify. They better fix the Fv3 in time for next winter

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7 hours ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

Can't wait for probably none of it to actually verify. They better fix the Fv3 in time for next winter

Two things:

 

1. There remains little evidence that the documented issues responsible for the delayed implementation of the FV3 have been addressed effectively.

2. The TT maps, which combine snow and sleet amplify the impact of the FV3's documented flaws.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Two things:

 

1. There remains little evidence that the documented issues responsible for the delayed implementation of the FV3 have been addressed effectively.

2. The TT maps, which combine snow and sleet amplify the impact of the FV3's documented flaws.

Yikes.

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Today's 12z EPS control 6 hr precip and mslp, f264-f306...

 

ALLRIGHTYTHEN.gif

 

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Two things:

 

1. There remains little evidence that the documented issues responsible for the delayed implementation of the FV3 have been addressed effectively.

2. The TT maps, which combine snow and sleet amplify the impact of the FV3's documented flaws.

 

To 1. - I don't believe any changes that NCEP has made to FV3 to address the documented issues have been pushed to public acceptance testing as of yet. The work is underway though and various members of the working group have noted publicly clear progress is being made. In the meantime TT, WB, WM etc that are providing FV3 are still running the same ol flawed release point from a few months ago, so to us nothing has changed - yet. I'd argue it would basically be better if they just pulled it for now. 

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