Eastern US April 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations - Page 14 - US-Focused Forecast and Discussion - 33andrain Jump to content
mbaer1970

Eastern US April 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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Today, the temperature reached 80° in Central Park for the first time this year. Last year, the temperature hit 82° on April 13.


Today's high temperature was the warmest reading in New York City since October 10, 2018 when the temperature also hit 80°.

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Wind has picked up quite a bit here, had a heavy rain shower move thru about 20 mins ago.

Current temp 70

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Earlier today, the temperature soared to 80° in New York City. That was New York City's first 80° temperature since the mercury topped out at 80° on October 10, 2018. Last year, the City had its first 80° reading on April 13. Since 2000, only 2000 and 2014 saw no 80° temperatures in April.

 

Even as the temperature reached the warmest levels so far this year, a storm was bringing severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to the Southeast. Overnight and tomorrow, that storm will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to the New York City area. Some locally higher amounts are possible, especially to the west of I-95. Readings should remain above average. Based on sensitivity analysis, there is an implied probability of 64% that New York City will pick up 1.00" or more rain.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

 

The SOI was -17.59 today.

 

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.712.

 

The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 91%. There is also an implied 67% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 54% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

 

On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.927 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 16-adjusted figure of 0.752. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 36 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.

 

Within the next day or so, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.

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Confirmed tornado in Reston, VA tonight. Will be an EF0 or EF1. Same cell tracked near my location. No tornado damage by me

Screen Shot 2019-04-19 at 10.56.04 PM.png

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It was so nice out today now here comes the unsettled weather. Hope we can get some nice consistent weather soon. I started a new job and haven’t been on here as much. Hope you all are doing great!

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Hope this fixes the FV3 biases that occurred.

 

 

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Picked up 0.41" of rain so far today.

Current temp 65

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8 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Hope this fixes the FV3 biases that occurred.

 

 

IMO, it should move into an extended period of testing that lasts into the winter to better assess whether its documented cold bias and excessive snowfall issues have been resolved. Until then, I don’t believe it should replace the GFS.

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