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Rtd208

Eastern US May 2019 Observations and Discussions

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Under bright sunshine, readings again climbed into the middle and upper 70s around the New York City region. More warmth is likely tomorrow and especially Monday.

 

Tomorrow and Monday could see the mercury approach or reach 90° as far north as Washington, DC. Readings could reach the 80s even into New York City and its northern suburbs on Monday.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

 

The SOI was not available today.

 

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.110. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. The guidance continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. The possibility of an 80° or above temperature in the northern Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England during the latter part of this period has continued to increase on the guidance.

 

On May 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.705 (RMM). The amplitude nearly unchanged from the May 16-adjusted figure of 1.705.

 

During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 69.0° for the May 21-31 timeframe. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England.

 

The core of the warm anomalies during the May 21-31 period could be focused over the Southeast. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta could approach or exceed the all-time monthly record high mean temperature of 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 59%.

 

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

 

Mean Temperature (May 1-18): 72.4° (16th warmest)

 

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.5°

 

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

 

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is now 60%.

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I’d sell on long term big heat for a while given the wet central US . Humidity is another story though 

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Looks like some storms have popped up over C NJ moving ENE.

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