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Eastern US June 2019 Observations and Discussions

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Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Albany: 80°; Allentown: 80°; Baltimore 83°; Boston: 83°; Harrisburg: 81°; Hartford: 82°; Islip: 81°; New York City: 79°; Newark: 83°; Philadelphia: 82°; Providence: 81°; Richmond: 83°; Scranton: 78°; and, Washington, DC: 83°. Tomorrow, temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer across much of the region.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

 

The SOI was -42.04 today. That is the lowest figure since February 19, 2019 when the SOI was -43.61.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.080.

 

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

 

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

 

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

 

On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.641.

 

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall.

 

The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).

 

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

 

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.

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39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Albany: 80°; Allentown: 80°; Baltimore 83°; Boston: 83°; Harrisburg: 81°; Hartford: 82°; Islip: 81°; New York City: 79°; Newark: 83°; Philadelphia: 82°; Providence: 81°; Richmond: 83°; Scranton: 78°; and, Washington, DC: 83°. Tomorrow, temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer across much of the region.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

 

The SOI was -42.04 today. That is the lowest figure since February 19, 2019 when the SOI was -43.61.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.080.

 

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

 

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

 

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

 

On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.641.

 

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall.

 

The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).

 

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

 

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.

Those are some really interesting stats on the SOI drop and summer temperatures. Nice job digging up that information for us. It should be fun to see if the models adjust to a warmer and drier early July in these coming days. 

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The much discussed Newfoundland/New England cold pool has warmed dramatically over the past 2 weeks -- now much less anomalous. Will be interesting to monitor to see if this will aid in the feedback of a gradually warming temperature regime in the Northeast.

 

jkemiu.png

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Pretty warm day out there. 

Current temp 86/DP 54/RH 32%

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83/55 split here today. Doesn't get much better than that at this time of year, w/ dews in the 50s.

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I remember the last week of school and the first days of summer vacation being hot in the 1960's...After a cool June max of 89 in 1960 the next nine years had some of the hottest temperatures of the year...the average June max for the 1960's was 95.5...highest for any June decade...94.2 in the 1950's was second...

1961 had a 96 degree day on 6/13 and 93 on 6/30...

1962 had a four day heat wave from the 16th-19th...max of 93...

1963 had a five day heat wave from the 25th-29th...max of 96...98 on 7/1...hottest of the year...

1964 had a max of 94 on 6/27...99 on 6/30 and 7/1...hottest of the year...

1965 had its hottest temp of the year on 6/28...95 degrees...

1966 saw 94 degrees on 6/23...101 on 6/27...94 on 6/30...

1967 saw the hottest temp of the year when it hit 96 on 6/16...90 on 6/25...

1968 had a 94 degree day on 6/30...97 on 7/1...

1969 had a 96 degree day on 6/28...

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Pretty typical summertime weather coming up for the next several days. A couple of chances of showers/storms with temps ranging anywhere from the low to uppers 80's.

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The pattern is undergoing a transition that could lead to some of the young summer's warmest readings to date from the middle of this week onward across parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

 

The SOI was -18.63 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.434.

 

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

 

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

 

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

 

On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.638.

 

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall.

 

The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).

 

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

 

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.

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I hope not too many people weren't fooled by the very warm to hot forecast maps generated by the models over this weekend. At least for the immediate NYC Metro Region, I am not at all looking for a terribly hot or much warmer than normal end of June or first half of July.

WX/PT

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Tuesday/Wednesday will be mid-upper 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast, and Thurs-Saturday has a shot at the first heat wave for much of NJ [inland]. The pattern overall should be warmer than normal prospectively.

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88/72 with some clouds. Pretty muggy out there. At least it will be a dry heat though when i go to Death Valley in a couple weeks, with average temps in the mid 110s in July.

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36 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Too early for a winter countdown thread?

Never too early

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6 hours ago, Jakkel138 said:

88/72 with some clouds. Pretty muggy out there. At least it will be a dry heat though when i go to Death Valley in a couple weeks, with average temps in the mid 110s in July.

 

With nighttime lows in the low 40s.

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I am kind of surprised to see Upton go hotter then Mt.Holly, usually it is the other way around. Have to see if Mt.Holly goes hotter in later updates but currently there isn't a huge forecast temp difference.. Here are the zone forecasts for Middlesex and Eastern Union Co NJ.

Mt.Holly:

 

Middlesex-
 Including the city of New Brunswick
 630 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
 
 .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers this
 evening, then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms after
 midnight. Warmer with lows in the upper 60s. South winds around
 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
 .TUESDAY...Cloudy with showers with a chance of thunderstorms in
 the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of showers in the
 afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. South winds around
 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
 .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s.
 Northwest winds around 5 mph. 
 .WEDNESDAY...Sunny with highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds
 around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. 
 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming
 partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds
 around 5 mph. 
 .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
 .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. 
 .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers after
 midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
 .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
 thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
 .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
 thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
 .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
 .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
 mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. 
 .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
 

Upton:

 

NJZ108-250815-
Eastern Union-
729 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 70. Southeast winds
around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
showers in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. South
winds around 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance
of rain 80 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the
evening. Lows around 70. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds
around 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming
partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight.
Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

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Much more uncomfortable now then earlier today.

Current temp 79/DP 66/RH 60%

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