Eastern US Summer 2019 Observations and Discussions

[33andrain 51,159]

HRDPS is meh IMO...limits severe potential to SE NJ.

[Logan Giles 1,556]

Likely a south of Trenton event again. Pretty common theme this summer. But I could see some isolated stuff up to NYC. But if you want to chase I'd head between I-66 and I-70. There's going to be a lot of veering in the 750-850 mb which will promote pretty good shear. Again, something we have not seen this summer. If clouds can clear before let's say noon. It should be a good day. Once storms fire they should rotate. Any isolated supercell will have a respectable chance to drop a tornado. Not liking any linear tornadoes. 

[Logan Giles 1,556]

Just now, Logan Giles said:

Likely a south of Trenton event again. Pretty common theme this summer. But I could see some isolated stuff up to NYC. But if you want to chase I'd head between I-66 and I-70. There's going to be a lot of veering in the 750-850 mb which will promote pretty good shear. Again, something we have not seen this summer. If clouds can clear before let's say noon. It should be a good day. Once storms fire they should rotate. Any isolated supercell will have a respectable chance to drop a tornado. Not liking any linear tornadoes. 

And I'd be surprised if a moderate risk was issued

[Crossbowftw3 334]

Just now, Logan Giles said:

And I'd be surprised if a moderate risk was issued

Hell, even the enhanced seemed eye popping. Regardless, being so far north away from Trenton means my prospects are null at best. Hoping we can take the rain we do get tomorrow, though 

[Logan Giles 1,556]

1 minute ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

Hell, even the enhanced seemed eye popping. Regardless, being so far north away from Trenton means my prospects are null at best. Hoping we can take the rain we do get tomorrow, though 

Yea enhanced definitely brings some attention. I might've waited until today's afternoon update to issue it but SPC knows more than I do. But enhanced was pretty much a given. Hope you all get some stuff tomorrow 

[33andrain 51,159]

Yeah they pulled the trigger too quickly on the Enhanced IMO. They'll keep it and narrow the band later today. Agree, no moderate risk. Haven't seen that all Summer. Tomorrow's event seems likely to follow the seasonal trend.

[Logan Giles 1,556]

I will be chasing tomorrow. Likely target area

[33andrain 51,159]

8 minutes ago, Logan Giles said:

I will be chasing tomorrow. Likely target area

Nice. Maybe even a tick east in SNJ should jackpot yet again.

[CCB! 20,846]

1 hour ago, Logan Giles said:

I will be chasing tomorrow. Likely target area

 

[CCB! 20,846]

You guys have been all over tomorrow's threat & the primary areas at risk. I just wanted to add a few tidbits. It's fairly a steep front coming through associated with a potent shortwave trough. Shear values will be very conducive across the entire region. The primary lever is a classic one in that it will come down to the timing of the front's arrival. Keep an eye on the visible, OBS/Dewpoint values over SE Canada & into the NE corridor tomorrow morning to see if it's on schedule, quicker or slower than projected. That could pull the threat north or keep it shunted further SE.

 

Training cells will be common again, flash flooding again a threat. Rinse, repeat for the season!

 

Mid-level lapse rates don't look overly impressive, so large hail doesn't look like a huge threat. But I'd be surprised if we didn't see one or two weak spin-ups tomorrow along the frontal boundary with a handful of straight line wind damage reports thrown in there.

 

 

Also, the severe threat remains in play on Wednesday for points further S if the front stalls... Though we'll see how that plays out.

 

[33andrain 51,159]

Great summary @CCB!

[Apophis 759]

Look at this ugly crap moving through the region in the morning and early afternoon, could suppress the main action...

[CCB! 20,846]

FFW's already out.

 

"PHI issues Flash Flood Watch valid at Aug 13, 2:00 PM EDT till Aug 14, 12:00 AM EDT"

 

[Rtd208 1,609]

2 minutes ago, CCB! said:

FFW's already out.

 

"PHI issues Flash Flood Watch valid at Aug 13, 2:00 PM EDT till Aug 14, 12:00 AM EDT"

 

Yep was just about to post this, 1-2" of rain with localized amounts up to 5"! Wow

[Rtd208 1,609]

Ref tomorrow: with a bit of model uncertainty still out there in regards to the severe threat I think the SPC will at the very least maintain the slight risk for the NYC metro area in the new day 1 outlook when its issued overnight.

 

To be more specific I don't see a slide back to marginal or necessarily an upgrade to enhanced either but I think we have a better chance at an upgrade then a downgrade IMO.

[CCB! 20,846]

Going to go out on the limb here. I'll say that the risk of a large number of massive polygonal Mt. Holly severe t-storm warnings verifying is high.

[33andrain 51,159]

1 hour ago, Apophis said:

Look at this ugly crap moving through the region in the morning and early afternoon, could suppress the main action...

Yep. Been bringing this up since yesterday. I expect tomorrow to verify very similarly to the event which yielded the Springfield tornado.

[Crossbowftw3 334]

Per latest BGM AFD:

 

warm front likely to stall near Wilkes-Barre keeping the severe shunted to the south creating a rain/elevated storm threat for me

 

high temperature at my house tomorrow: 74

high temperature in philly, the middle of enhanced zone: near 90

[sferic 376]

16 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

Per latest BGM AFD:

 

warm front likely to stall near Wilkes-Barre keeping the severe shunted to the south creating a rain/elevated storm threat for me

 

high temperature at my house tomorrow: 74

high temperature in philly, the middle of enhanced zone: near 90

In Liberty now, are you closer to the action or do we all in Sullivan cash in?

[Crossbowftw3 334]

16 minutes ago, sferic said:

In Liberty now, are you closer to the action or do we all in Sullivan cash in?

Between the Marginal/General storms line here, NYC south (more Philly south) is looking good