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33andrain

Eastern US Summer 2019 Observations and Discussions

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Nobody should even be looking at anything regarding winter just yet.

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A note about the farmers almanac: Wet and wild doesn’t necessarily mean not snowy. Snow is wet, isn’t it? And wild could mean a lot of things.

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Speaking of long term forecasts that are more likely to be wrong, I figured I’d throw this image in here just for fun.35F67EF1-5032-4328-8A06-10104EFD69ED.png.427191f9b11ada59a9a956c4696cb679.png

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There is growing model support for the possible development of much above normal warmth in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.

 

The implied probability that Anchorage will record its warmest summer on record is near 100%. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.4°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 53% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.

 

Anchorage has had 5 previous summers with mean temperatures of 60.0° or above. Four (80%) occurred 2000 or later and 3 (60%) occurred 2010 or later. Those summers were:

 

1977: 60.2°

2004: 60.2°

2013: 60.1°

2015: 60.2°

2016: 60.8°

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

 

The SOI was -13.90 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.300. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.

 

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. The latest guidance is in line with August's anomaly falling within that range.

 

However, some uncertainty has increased concerning the start of September. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies.

 

On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.120.

 

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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39 minutes ago, cerra679 said:

A note about the farmers almanac: Wet and wild doesn’t necessarily mean not snowy. Snow is wet, isn’t it? And wild could mean a lot of things.

Wet and wild sounds like the name of a theme park, rather than a term to describe the weather.

 

One of the more meaningless terms I have heard thrown around.

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10 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Speaking of winter....

 

I wrote my first seasonal forecast on the 1st of September last year. Not sure I will be able to go that early, but my preliminary thoughts will be coming very soon. Seasonal forecasting season is almost upon us. Just need our season to wrap up.

 

New website coming too for the NH winter.

Finally some encouraging news! Potentially... :unsure: 

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Le sigh. For NYC, CAPE no longer appears to be supportive for today, though shear values may be conducive from the city and east. Not liking chances for widespread severe across the metro, and certainly not for areas west of the city. An isolated cell or two cannot be ruled out over Central AND Southern NJ; with much more widespread severe activity northeast of the city.

 

Tomorrow is looking a bit better though...so there is that. SPC will need to raise those pops I think.

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22 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Le sigh. For NYC, CAPE no longer appears to be supportive for today, though shear values may be conducive from the city and east. Not liking chances for widespread severe today across the metro, and certainly not for areas west of the city. An isolated cell or two cannot be ruled out over Central AND Southern NJ; with much more widespread severe activity northeast of the city.

 

Tomorrow is looking a bit better though...so there is that. SPC will need to raise those pops I think.

Seems OK to me

nam3km_cape_neus_15.png

hrrr_cape_neus_12.png

sbcp.gif?1566385905373

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6 minutes ago, Apophis said:

Seems OK to me

nam3km_cape_neus_15.png

hrrr_cape_neus_12.png

sbcp.gif?1566385905373

Indeed. I was looking on weathernerds and must have been looking at the wrong plot or the right plot wrong ;). Still not great, especially as we move further into the afternoon and shear still isn't conducive, so will stick with the call. We'll see.

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Finally some encouraging news! Potentially... :unsure: 

Well get ready, because it's a long road.

I don't mind the outlook at the moment.

The few seasonal forecasts and charts don't look that bad. at all.

Never mind the Farmers Almanac.

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1 minute ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Well get ready, because it's a long road.

I don't mind the outlook at the moment.

The few seasonal forecasts and charts don't look that bad. at all.

Never mind the Farmers Almanac.

Glad you’re still with us and can’t wait for winter!

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

Glad you’re still with us and can’t wait for winter!

Of course. Wouldn't miss a season here.

Vibes here are awesome during winter.

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17 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Of course. Wouldn't miss a season here.

Vibes here are awesome during winter.

Let us know if you ever crack the code to getting similar engagement during the other 3 seasons! :) 

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Binghamton's new AFD already pretty much squashes the threat for me, or at least presents the big caveat:

 

 
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 AM Update...Morning convection is now exiting the forecast
area, with just scattered showers behind it. Latest visible
imagery shows the area mostly draped with clouds/convective
debris and short wave is very clear on satellite and about to
enter our far western forecast zones. The cloud cover is going
hinder diurnal heating and thus instability is likely going to
be quite weak as this next wave passes. There could be a few
breaks in the clouds that allow some heating, but the timing of
the wave is such that even if we do clear in some spots, there
will be very little time to destabilize. Behind this short wave,
water vapor shows very dry air/subsidence, so scattered to
widespread storms looks unlikely...especially with the forcing
pushing east out of the region this afternoon. Have adjusted PoP
accordingly and still leave likely showers/storms across our far
eastern forecast zones later this afternoon.

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So much cloud cover. Line of showers about to move through here. Another behind it. I think we may have found the culprit for killing the threat today.

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