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Eastern US Summer 2019 Observations and Discussions

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22 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Wonder if most or all of us have seen our last 90’s til next May or June 

 

Maybe a few more in September, but I think most of it will be confined from EWR to PHL and south. 

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NAM has high elevations of the Catskills getting as low as 28.8 Monday morning...

image.png.94f9a53202463e9cc8357c5df4bf33f4.png

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2 minutes ago, WxLover said:

NAM has high elevations of the Catskills getting as low as 28.8 Monday morning...

image.png.94f9a53202463e9cc8357c5df4bf33f4.png

 

Whaaaaa? O_O

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As I was going to the Dutchess County fair yesterday, i noticed the trees starting to change  colors.

It gets dark around 715pm now

Autumn is coming 😃

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Any chance NYC can drop below 60 degrees tonight ?

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14 hours ago, Event Horizon said:

 

Maybe a few more in September, but I think most of it will be confined from EWR to PHL and south. 

 

I think there will probably be 1 to 3 90 degree days to follow in the usual hot spots, BUT low 90s will do it.
We've seen our last really hot days until next summer, and if my "sunspot outlook" is correct, there may not be many of those at all next summer.

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1 hour ago, Intensewind001 said:

Was the storm Thursday night classified as a downburst/microburst

Straight line winds/downburst 

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This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included:

 

Islip: 61° (lowest since 8/12: 60°)

New York City: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°)

Newark: 62° (lowest since 6/24: 62°)

Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°)

 

Tonight will likely feature the lowest temperatures of this cool shot. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60° remains more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 40%. The current cool spell will likely last into mid-week.

 

In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada over the next day or two.

 

Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week.

 

Daily record high temperatures included: Benson, UK: 90°; Birmingham, UK: 86°; Brize Norton, UK: 88°; Dresden, Germany: 90°; East Midlands, UK: 86°; Humberside, UK: 82°; London-Gatwick: 88°; London-Heathrow: 91°; Marham, UK: 88°; Northolt, UK: 91°; Satenas, Sweden: 75°; St. Gatien, France: 88°; Stansted, UK: 90°; Stavanger, Norway: 77°; and, Wittering, UK: 88°.

 

Paris also reached a near-record high 90°.

 

In the United States, record heat covered a portion of the Southern United States. Records included: Carlsbad, NM: 108°; Raton, NM: 97°; Midland, TX: 108° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 109° (new August record).

 

Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

 

In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 73%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

 

The SOI was -5.28 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.655. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway.

 

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

 

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.

 

There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

 

On August 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.314 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.240.

 

Finally, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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49 here in Worcester MA. Getting ready to leave this morning after visiting relatives yesterday. 60 on the PWS at home.

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25 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 60 

59 now

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Park and LGA only made it to 61.

Newark hit 59.

JFK 60.

Monticello 45.

HPN 53.

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I love how it seems almost every year we get a couple days in late August that have just a touch of fall in them. Dunkin already has the pumpkin latte lol

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19 hours ago, Analog96 said:

 

I think there will probably be 1 to 3 90 degree days to follow in the usual hot spots, BUT low 90s will do it.
We've seen our last really hot days until next summer, and if my "sunspot outlook" is correct, there may not be many of those at all next summer.

I agree with you for the NYC area. However, south of Trenton still has 2-5 90 degree days. Here in Baltimore, our last 90 degree day climatologically is September 12. We probably have 5-6 in the DMV. Even when it warms up, we should hold at 86-88 until at least 9/5. Climos get less favorable  then. Real fall comes around 9/25-10/10. We don’t get our first flakes till early DEC usually.

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