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Superstorm93

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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First fully tropical invest of the year in the Bay of Campeche with a 60% chance to develop. Recon poised to head in later today. 

 

This could be a particularity interesting season, especially if this dud of a Nino weakens over the next 4-6 weeks. 

 

two_atl_2d1.png

 

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has
changed little in organization since yesterday. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a
day or two.  Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico
during the next few days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary.  Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Alvin has formed in the Eastern Pacific, or the EPac on June 26, 2019. As a result, the 2019 Pacific hurricane season is the latest starting season on record since 1966, as well as the third-latest starting season according to the NHC (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/261453.shtml?). As of right now, Alvin is expected to remain a relatively weak to moderate strength tropical storm over the eastern Pacific as it gradually moves into drier air and higher wind shear, as well as cooler waters for this time of year. There is a chance that Alvin could become at least a minimal hurricane, although that seems unlikely as it is early in the season. 

 

 

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Wait a minute why didn't i read the title topic before posting in this thread? Can someone delete my post from Wednesday please.

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On 7/1/2019 at 9:08 PM, Christof said:

Really quiet this year.

It's still early but if the NAO continues to stay negative then we might be looking at an active period in late summer.

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Euro brings that area of interest in the gulf into Texas as a high end Cat 1 with 80-90mph gusts at 984mb.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019070800_144_490_149.png.a651be695b06fbf02414af0235f8713b.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019070800_144_516_379.png.ca0212fcd47696b5d80cca3b14adba33.png

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UKMET also bringing a Hurricane into the Gulf coast later in the week 

 

 

precip_6hourly_CONUS_hr120.png

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Still located over GA for the moment. 

wfjkl.PNG

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ECMWF Ens bring 92L into the central/western Gulf 

esrl.eps.ecmb.skp.92L.2019.168.png

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image.png

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1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

ECMWF Ens bring 92L into the central/western Gulf 

esrl.eps.ecmb.skp.92L.2019.168.png

If the storm would track west more would that allow for a stronger system with more time over water?

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1 hour ago, Adam said:

If the storm would track west more would that allow for a stronger system with more time over water?

Yes. And it would be moving over 90 degree waters with little shear

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12 minutes ago, Logan Giles said:

Yes. And it would be moving over 90 degree waters with little shear

 

UKMET shows this pretty well. The overall intensity of 92L will be highly dependent on how it does once it reaches the Gulf. If it can develop relatively quickly, then it may be able to avoid some of the shear/dry air in the medium range. 

 

Not really honking for a big storm here, but a hurricane certainly seems to be in the realm of possibilities. 

 

116.track.current.png

 

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What did the overnight Ukmet and Euro show?

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UKMET, GFS, and the CMC all show a hurricane from 92L 

 

 

500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr096.png

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56 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

UKMET, GFS, and the CMC all show a hurricane from 92L 

 

 

500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr096.png

That's a strong one verbatim.  Looks like a cat 3 on the UKMET

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I am planning on using this paper for soon to be Barry. Reason is heavy rain and a US landfall is expected. Here is the link 

 

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The HWRF is among the Euro and UKMET with a stronger and further west storm (albeit really ridiculous). 18z Euro has a 976mb storm still offshore at hour 90.

hwrf-p_mslp_wind_92L_31.png

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