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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto this

afternoon found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt in the

western quadrant, along with SFMR surface winds of 71-72 kt, which

is an increase in the winds in this part of storm since the earlier

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight. The NOAA aircraft also

measured a central pressure of 972 mb, down 4 mb from the previous

flight. A combination of subjective and objective satellite

intensity estimates of 90 kt and the aircraft data support an

initial intensity of 80 kt.

 

Sometimes when recon conflicts with your priors, you should just accept the recon data. 

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17 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

This GoM wave could prove problematic for the Texas coast.

imageproxy.png

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12Z Euro seems to agree with the NAM over the GFS.

 

1189333611_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesHoustonTotalPrecipitation120.png.1d481ef8ba9932a244f87846fa894146.png

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1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

12Z Euro seems to agree with the NAM over the GFS.

 

1189333611_9-kmECMWFUSACitiesHoustonTotalPrecipitation120.png.1d481ef8ba9932a244f87846fa894146.png

Yeesh. In areas that I'd assume at this point are still working to recover from Harvey two years ago.

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Recon is just making pass after pass into the eye. Weenie's dream. 

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967mb on dropsonde. But barely hurricane strength. 

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Dvorak is trash for the second hurricane in a row this season. 

 

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  16 SEP 2019    Time :   232018 UTC
      Lat :   30:16:48 N     Lon :   75:37:47 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.5 / 954.2mb/102.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.5     5.6     5.6

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

 Center Temp :  +2.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

 Scene Type : EYE  

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Why this garbage from the NHC?? 

 

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.3 North,
longitude 75.5 West.  Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 7 mph (11 km/h).  This general motion with a gradual increase
in forward speed is expected through early Thursday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach
Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

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