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Current Observations: Autumn 2019


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4 hours ago, rb924119 said:

Never underestimate a deep negatively tilting trough with that much energy at its base. Modeling is still not set with the evolution, and based on the overall look of it I think there are going to be some decent surprises for the interior. I’m not writing this off at alll. As I said before, I’ve been fooled by this exact setup before. We still have 30 hours to go lol I TRACK!

If surprises are 4" then I'm all for it!

NNE will likely see the more ice-based impacts than our areas but we could have some sneaky snow

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I never decided to present my analog set (using the same years as before) for this upcoming November, but here it is: This is actually a very similar look to what's occurring right now:

I took this sunrise shot this AM over Skaneateles Lake. We were on the outer edge of the remnants of Nestor and it allowed for a sensational show!

Posted Images

Frigid air brought some additional record low temperatures to northern New England. Burlington tied its daily record low temperature of 7°, which had been set in 1924. At Caribou, the temperature fell to -1°, breaking the record low of 4°, which was set in 1943. More impressively, that is the earliest subzero temperature on record for Caribou. The prior earliest such reading occurred on November 21, 1959 with a temperature of -1°.

 

On parts of the West Coast, record heat prevailed. Records included: Camarillo, CA: 94°(old record: 92°, 1932); Los Angeles: 93° (old record: 91°, 1949); Redding, CA: 87° (old record: 83°, 1895 and 1936); San Diego: 88° (tied record set in 1976); and, San Francisco: 74° (old record: 73°, 1989 and tied in 2008).

 

As an anecdote, the following cases among the years cited above for which California's heat records were tied and broken, 1932, 1936, 1949, and 2008 saw a cold November and warm December in the East. 1976 and 1989 saw a continuation of the cold in December. In short, one cannot rule out a pattern change that results in a milder December, even if the guidance does not yet show such an outcome.

 

A strong coastal storm will pass offshore tonight and tomorrow bringing some showers and perhaps periods of rain to the region, along with gusty winds. Most of the region will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide.

 

With a high temperature of 78°, Key West's record stretch of 234 consecutive days (from March 28 through November 16) with high temperatures of 80° or above came to an end. The prior record was 225 consecutive days, which was set in 1965.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

 

The SOI was -9.17 today.

 

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.364.

 

The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through at least late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal).

 

On November 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.337 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.283.

 

The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December.

 

It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.

 

With the AO currently serving as the "king" of the Northern Hemisphere pattern, weakening of the AO domain blocking, could provide the first tangible evidence that a pattern change toward milder weather is imminent. For now, even as a milder than normal December appears more likely than not, the timing of the necessary pattern change remains uncertain.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 92% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 could finish with a monthly average temperature that could be the coldest since 2012 (43.9°) or perhaps even 1996 (43.0°) in New York City.

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7 hours ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

The once really nice pattern has reversed itself...reminds me a little of last year..

image.png

 

1. That's just one model. Unless the EPS and Canadian ens jump on board. I wouldn't worry about it. :) Especially with a +EAMT which favors +PNA ridging. No clue where the GEFS produces a -PNA despite an extended Pac jet(which is nowhere's near as extended as back in May)!

 

2. If a trough were to dip West, it's beginning to be that time of year again where the -NAO would cause a conus wide trough rather then a warm East vs. cold West pattern.

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57 minutes ago, ThunderSnow4 said:

Thanksgiving timeframe looks massively different of the GEFS at 18z. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/0f46119b-0585-4b18-b158-a796ca01c203

There are actually a number of big snow hits on the 18z GEFS, and there were on the 12z run as well. Thanksgiving and just after.

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Something very interesting is going on across N NJ, LHV, and NE PA currently.  A bunch of Mping reports coming in reporting snow telling me that there must be some low level precip bands that the radar beam is overshooting.  Just found confirmation on Twitter too. 

https://twitter.com/jblandscapingnj/status/1196236373067550723?s=20

image.png

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1 hour ago, WxLover said:

Something very interesting is going on across N NJ, LHV, and NE PA currently.  A bunch of Mping reports coming in reporting snow telling me that there must be some low level precip bands that the radar beam is overshooting.  Just found confirmation on Twitter too. 

https://twitter.com/jblandscapingnj/status/1196236373067550723?s=20

image.png

Flurry by me. First flakes for me. 

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38 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:

My buddy sent this to me. He lives in the Poconos (Swiftwater, PA).

CBAB00CF-422D-4716-8E13-27721D222F13.jpeg

 

My parents are in the Poconos too!! Probably will get a text about it in the morning from mom ahaha lucky ducks!

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26 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

 

My parents are in the Poconos too!! Probably will get a text about it in the morning from mom ahaha lucky ducks!

 

Lol yeah they are. He said that they’re expecting 3”. He was confused that nothing was showing up on his weather channel radar..

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8 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Beautiful delivery of -NAO ridging into Greenland on the 12z Euro. Unfortunately the pac ridge axis is centered too far west to benefit us and Thanksgiving is a cutter.

 

0CD5E00A-D3F6-464E-8F53-27FF2402DE29.png

I think the EPS is closer to the truth but still off. The trough I believe will be conus wide(as opposed to a western trough). Believe the MJO/+IOD forcing and +EAMT is why models are having fits(both together give mixed signals. This time of year +EAMT give +PNA while MJO phase 8/1 pavors -PNA. With a -NAO around Hudson Bay(I think) I believe this Thanksgiving will split the difference with conus wide troughing from coast to coast under north Canadian blocking. Think the Atlantic ridge will be much farther east. Bering Sea troughing usually does not favor SE ridging as far as I've heard.

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Some very light freezing drizzle is ongoing at the moment, some surfaces are glazed. Right at freezing as of this moment so within a few hours we will warm to rain anyway.

With overnight guidance pretty much locking in the further east track it looks like little or no snow for this now. I'd like to think things will get better but after last winter I don't know what to think.

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