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Current Observations: Autumn 2019

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Speaking of false positives...terrible. I am actually quite seriously considering banning the Op GFS from being posted anywhere other than in Banter. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_54.png

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the one and only GFS showing a massive snowstorm NOVEMBER 7th. LOL. We need to get rid of this model. Does crazy things. 

 

 

 

676843697_ScreenShot2019-10-26at6_50_27AM.png.5dac9b37442af0ba1fd2743f71d6ee93.png

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5 hours ago, Henry said:

 

 

 

 

the one and only GFS showing a massive snowstorm NOVEMBER 7th. LOL. We need to get rid of this model. Does crazy things. 

 

 

 

676843697_ScreenShot2019-10-26at6_50_27AM.png.5dac9b37442af0ba1fd2743f71d6ee93.png

Can’t make this stuff up. 

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3 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Speaking of false positives...terrible. I am actually quite seriously considering banning the Op GFS from being posted anywhere other than in Banter. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_54.png

Maybe just ban any GFS map past 120hrs from being posted in regular discussion forum.  The model is going to be garbage this winter unfortunately it appears with these fantasy snowstorms showing up already.

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2 hours ago, Henry said:

 

 

 

 

the one and only GFS showing a massive snowstorm NOVEMBER 7th. LOL. We need to get rid of this model. Does crazy things. 

 

 

 

676843697_ScreenShot2019-10-26at6_50_27AM.png.5dac9b37442af0ba1fd2743f71d6ee93.png

October 29th, 2011, remember that day?

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18 minutes ago, sferic said:

October 29th, 2011, remember that day?

I do .. never thought id be driving to philly for my bachelor party in the snow

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35 minutes ago, cerra679 said:

I’m sorry, but isn’t the point of a model to predict the future? How do you know it won’t happen until it actually gets to that timeframe? What if it actually verified? You can’t automatically say it’s going to be wrong just because it’s the GFS. If the GFS was always wrong, why would NOAA continue it? Half of this forum is based upon long-range signals. So why not ban them too? How often do the teleconnections change and all of a sudden we’re all bummed they didn’t happen? You can’t just ban something just because you don’t think it’s realistic. That’s not how the world works.

 

I’m sure many on this forum, especially those that are new, would be disappointed if such a thing were to be done. If newbies see that posting the GFS is banned in serious discussions, what will they think? They’ll just go to another forum. The point of a forum is to discuss things, but if you can’t discuss things, what’s the point?

 

You have to be able to look at a run, look at the trends of drivers of a pattern, and see if it’s worthwhile analyzing. No, it’s most likely not going to drop 6.3” in the back left corner of your front yard, but it’s meant to let you know about a signal. If you just flat out say it’s lying, you’re going to be caught off guard next time it is right.

 

Meanwhile, this should probably be in banter, and feel free to move it, but I needed everyone to see this.

Good post. We will allow the GFS to be posted. But let's be real, this is going to be the major story in the news media this Winter. 

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2 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Good post. We will allow the GFS to be posted, but let's be real. The GFS is going to be the major story in the news media this Winter. 

 

Well then that’s on them if it get it wrong. If our experts catch the flaws of a storm before they do, 33andRain will be the alpha weather source. Then there will be more members.

 

Thanks for not following through.

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4 minutes ago, cerra679 said:

 

Well then that’s on them if it get it wrong. If our experts catch the flaws of a storm before they do, 33andRain will be the alpha weather source. Then there will be more members.

 

Thanks for not following through.

👍 (I was never serious). 33 already is the alpha weather source. ;) 

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After a warm end to October we will probably start November on the chilly side. -epo leftovers and +pna for a bit 

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GFS forecasted this week to be frigid, and it will be well AN. It’s been schooled by the Euro past month. Sure post the GFS, but let’s not take it too seriously 

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8 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

👍 (I was never serious). 33 already is the alpha weather source. ;) 

Not trying to get into an argument here, but you said and I quote “I am actually quite serious banning the Op GFS...” like I said I’m not trying to get into an argument but when your original post said that it had me upset especially coming from you who should know better that models help us, and each one has it flaws though 7B108ECA-9FD8-434D-8C26-184A34146A78.jpeg.875cb352ee5a03ff60fb1b0d6a800d97.jpeg 

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3 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:

 

We may have to rely on meteorology this winter.

 

 

No better place for that than right here!

What a concept. Who would have thought? 🤷‍♂️

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Yeah, I’m for banning GFS maps until 120 hours out. But it should already be known that 200-300+ hour maps will almost definitely change and shouldn’t be taken seriously at all lol. 

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Happy Halloween.

 

Case in point. 

20191026_104837.jpg

20191026_104803.jpg

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Would rather have that look for Halloween and not on or around Christmas. Probably will be brief cooldown during the first week of November but temperatures will rebound by the middle of the month.

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12z GFS running. What will the blizzard du jour look like? :) 

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