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Current Observations: Autumn 2019

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9 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Wow

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I'm gonna hazard a guess and assume a severe watch would come up northeast of that yet still?

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4 minutes ago, Newman said:

Those are absurd probabilities for Halloween in the latest Tor watch. Probably going to get hammered here in Lancaster later.

You could say that again...

 

image.png

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3 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

I'm gonna hazard a guess and assume a severe watch would come up northeast of that yet still?

 

Keep an eye on this page.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Those are absurd probabilities for Halloween in the latest Tor watch. Probably going to get hammered here in Lancaster later.

Fellow met student at MU? You in MetLab with Dr Sikora rn too? 😂

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1 minute ago, AwkwardJoe99 said:

Fellow met student at MU? You in MetLab with Dr Sikora rn too? 😂

Lol that's hilarious didn't know there was other MU met students on this board. Nope not in MetLab right now. Bet Sikora is getting giddy. 

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Lol that's hilarious didn't know there was other MU met students on this board. Nope not in MetLab right now. Bet Sikora is getting giddy. 

He is haha

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Winds aloft will be howling later on with the passage of the QLCS. Winds will likely be mixed down to severe levels in some places. Latest NAM:

648816128_Nam850mb.png.1b5199681dc61339d45564ec3245a7b2.png

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6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Winds aloft will be howling later on with the passage of the QLCS. Winds will likely be mixed down to severe levels in some places. Latest NAM:

HRRR hasn't really bought into the idea of a low-level inversion as much as the 3k NAM... Starting to feel like we'll see some pretty stiff gusts pre-fropa & post-frontal from the backside.

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32 minutes ago, AwkwardJoe99 said:

Fellow met student at MU? You in MetLab with Dr Sikora rn too? 😂

 

29 minutes ago, Newman said:

Lol that's hilarious didn't know there was other MU met students on this board. Nope not in MetLab right now. Bet Sikora is getting giddy. 

 

27 minutes ago, AwkwardJoe99 said:

He is haha

33andrain bringing the community together. Warms my heart. 

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4 minutes ago, CCB! said:

HRRR hasn't really bought into the idea of a low-level inversion as much as the 3k NAM... Starting to feel like we'll see some pretty stiff gusts pre-fropa & post-frontal from the backside.

image.png.023d4dec17a65f31f4ac004e39749fbe.png

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Be careful out there.  Most likely will see some damage from tree debris.

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EPS is cold for the next week into the weekend. We loose the -epo after next week but temps remain normal for this time of the year 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

EPS is cold for the next week into the weekend. We loose the -epo after next week but temps remain normal for this time of the year 

Slight chance of flakes with the cold air.

 

First  freeze for many 

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   Valid 312001Z - 312200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 687 continues.

   SUMMARY...A rapid increase in severe weather potential with
   developing thunderstorm activity is expected east of the Blue Ridge
   Mountains, including at least western portions of the Greater
   Washington D.C. metro area, by 6-8 PM EDT.  This will include the
   risk for fairly widespread damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple
   of tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...To the south of a rapidly deepening surface cyclone,
   now migrating across and north of Lake Erie, a sharpening cold front
   is approaching the Allegheny Front and will advance across and east
   of the higher terrain during the next few hours.  At the same time,
   the significant short wave trough pivoting east of the Mississippi
   Valley has taken on more of a neutral tilt, and is forecast to
   gradually assume a negative tilt as it approaches the Appalachians
   by early this evening.  This is expected to be accompanied by
   strengthening forcing for ascent, focused along or just ahead of the
   front, to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains by 23-00Z.

   As this occurs, a rapid development and intensification of
   thunderstorm activity is expected, which may include supercells and
   an evolving squall line.   Boundary layer dew point increases to
   around 70F, coupled with daytime heating, appear to now be in the
   process of increasing CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg in a corridor
   between the Blue Ridge and Interstate 95.  As south-southwesterly
   mean lower/mid tropospheric flow continues to increase in excess of
   60 kt across this region, heavy precipitation loading in
   intensifying thunderstorms is expected to enhance downward momentum
   transport in downdrafts.  This should be accompanied by increasing
   potential for severe wind gusts, which could become fairly
   widespread through early this evening.

   Given very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, supercell
   structures within and perhaps just ahead of the eastward advancing
   squall line will also probably be accompanied by a risk for
   tornadoes.

   ..Kerr.. 10/31/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...
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Given time of day when the line should be coming through our areas (likely past 8-10) I still feel that severe measured gusts would be at least somewhat more limited than further S&W, but at least some reports should come out of it. Exception more than norm.

 

Very impressive to see a second halloween severe event in two years and an October event for our neck of the woods of similar magnitude to last October, regardless.

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Current temp 73/DP 68/RH 84%

Picked up 0.44" of rain so far today.

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What a temperature range from 45 to 90 in Georgia

ga.JPG

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