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Eastern US Met Autumn 2019 Observations and Discussions

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Hopefully this Fall will be different then the last few late starters that featured torches in the beginning of October. If this blocking continues maybe we'll be in luck for an early Autumn. Speaking off early Falls Central Florida has not seen a pre-October cool shot since 2012 and has not had a cooldown before late October since 2014. 2016 did have a front that picked up Matthew around the 8th of Oct. but that trough was too progressive to give Orlando and Tampa a decent dewpoint depression(Having temps fall into the 80's with dewpoints falling into the 40's-50's is a decent cooldown for early Fall Florida standards lol).

 

 HM is starting to doubt the calls for a warm Nov-Dec this year for the Eastern 2/eds of the U.S. and is instead calling for below average temps If things continue as they are over the next month(latent Nino with a Nina-like walker cell). If so, That'll put us into the Christmas spirit after Halloween!😀 

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Hurricane Dorian may begin to gradually weaken later tonight or tomorrow as its forward motion continues to slow and then it eventually begins to turn to the north. Even as Dorian will likely pass offshore, portions of the Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines could still experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Enough EPS members suggest the possibility of landfall to avoid completely ruling out such a scenario in Florida and especially in eastern North Carolina.

 

Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian.

 

Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month.

 

Across the Atlantic Ocean, the latest round of heat that toppled records in large parts of Europe will be concluding Europe. Earlier today, a number of daily and even monthly records were registered in Norway and Sweden.

 

Select records included: Bardufoss, Norway: 73°; Bodo Vi, Norway: 73° (tied September record); Evenes, Norway: 75° (new September record); Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 68°; Leknes, Norway: 72° (new September record); Liepaja, Latvia: 84°; Linkoping, Sweden: 81° (new September record); Murmansk, Russia: 68°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82° (new September record); Pori, Finland: 77°; Stockholm: 79° (tied September record); Svolvaer, Norway: 68° (new September record); Vadso, Norway: 64°; Vassa, Finland: 77°; Vasteras, Sweden: 79°; and, Visby Flygplats, Sweden: 82° (new September record).

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

 

The SOI was -14.32 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.186.

 

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

 

On August 31, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.058 (RMM). The August 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.185.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 46%.

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I don't think many have been paying attention to this, with all eyes focused on Dorian, but...

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

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3 hours ago, Analog96 said:

I don't think many have been paying attention to this, with all eyes focused on Dorian, but...

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

Shear isn't terrible. Might get a few rotating storms 

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Instability is very much lacking as it stands at the moment. With that, though, fall severe season pretty much begins today. After the hyperactive spring I wonder what fall has in store 

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Picked up 0.54" of rain so far today.

Current temp 74/DP 72/Rh 94%

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Look out eastern suffolk. Nasty storms moving onshore with a lot of rotation. These storms are warned 

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Friday should really feel like fall with temps in the 50’s and a stiff east wind

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Tornado warning in Suffolk. Nasty rotation about to cross LIE in Manorville

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Convection along the front seems to be dropping off rather fast, looks like I'll get a dry frontal passage this evening 

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Hurricane Dorian will continue to gradually weaken tonight and tomorrow as continues its slow turn to the north. Nevertheless, Dorian will remain a powerful hurricane. Dorian will likely pass just off the Florida Peninsula. As Dorian comes northward and gradually takes a more eastward turn, portions of the Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines will likely experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Coastal flooding is very likely.

 

Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian.

 

Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month.

 

Across the Atlantic Ocean, the most recent round of excessive heat continues to dissipate in Europe. Nevertheless, as the area of warmth headed north and east, a number of records were set.

 

Select records included: Kecskemet, Hungary: 91°, Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 72° (tied September record); Kruunupyy, Finland: 73°; Murmansk, Russia: 75° (new September record); Oulu, Finland: 75°; Pecs, Hungary: 90°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 72°; Szolnok, Hungary: 91°; and, Vadso, Norway: 68°.

 

In the United States, Denver recorded a 100° high temperature, its latest 100° reading on record. The prior latest such temperature occurred on August 16, 2002. Pueblo, CO also saw the temperature set a new September record at 102°.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

 

The SOI was -20.86 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.419.

 

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

 

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

 

On September 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.881 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.039.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 48%.

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Nice evening on the LI Sound. Living on the beach for my senior year so hopefully we get some nice coastal's this year 

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 8.25.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 8.26.26 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 8.26.34 PM.png

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 09/02/19 TORNADO EVENT...

.Preliminary survey results for Suffolk County, NY...

Start Location...Manorville in Suffolk County, NY
End Location...Manorville in Suffolk County, NY
Date...September 2 2019
Estimated Time...4:33 to 4:38 pm EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph
Maximum Path Width...50 yards
Path Length...1.6 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...40.8417/-72.8313
Ending Lat/Lon...40.8646/-72.8235
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...
A severe thunderstorm moving northeast over Mastic/Shirley and
then into Manorville in southeast Suffolk County produced an EF0
tornado. The tornado first touched down on Dayton Street, about
400 yards south of the intersection of South Street and Dayton
Avenue in Manorville. It sheared large tree limbs and the tops off
of dozens of oak, maple and pine trees, as well as uprooting at
least a dozen shallow rooted large trees. Several electric poles
were downed by falling trees on this block, with collateral tree
damage noted to a few houses in the neighborhood. The tornado
continued northeast through the south end of neighboring Rosewood
Street and then across its intersecting cross street of South
Street. Several more trees were uprooted, large limbs broken, or
tree tops sheared on this leg of its path. Facing houses on the
north and south side of South Street had widespread tree damage
and uprooting. A shed was destroyed in this location as well,
with damage to residences in the form of sporadic blown off
shingles and siding, missing storm screens, and a couple of broken
windows. The tornado then continued northeast through a wooded
area, where more tree damage was noted, before crossing the Long
Island Expressway near Exit 69 while lifting. The path of tree
damage and debris ended on the service road on the north side of
the LIE near the intersection with Wading River Road.

Many thanks to Suffolk County Fire, Rescue and Emergency Services,
Brookhaven Highway Department, and local residents for their
assistance in conducting this storm survey.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$
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Picked up 0.57" of rain for the day.

Current temp 71/DP 66/RH 83%

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