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Hurricane Dorian Discussion

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Dorian officially a hurricane.

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian
should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well
east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the
British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:   Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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See prior discussion of Dorian here:

 

 

Otherwise, continue the discussion here.

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HWRF is insane take this with a huge grain of salt.

FED8F301-A6BC-491E-9182-2D60E6F44A71.png.efbb943e0e5c56559e40247ef1a38edd.png

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Don’t have the exact location but this is from one of the islands East of Puerto Rico.

3A30B807-B299-46B6-B03C-C1F3C1EB5E71.png.4660d8bc5e5baa2117cc15d3bc334717.png

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Just now, Anthony Gnafakis said:

Is there any usual accuracy with the HWRF model? Or just a big hurricane hyper?

It tends to take things to the extreme.

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3 minutes ago, Anthony Gnafakis said:

Is there any usual accuracy with the HWRF model? Or just a big hurricane hyper?

 

 

2 minutes ago, Storm Sliders said:

It tends to take things to the extreme.

Latter. NAM tried to make Barry an 883 monster by comparison  

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19 minutes ago, StatenWX said:

HWRF is insane take this with a huge grain of salt.

FED8F301-A6BC-491E-9182-2D60E6F44A71.png.efbb943e0e5c56559e40247ef1a38edd.png

it has higher resolution.  It was good with harvy, michael predicting them stronger.  Like every other model it’s not perfect.   

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That FL/GA/SC coastline looks like a catchers mit for a hurricane. The right trajectory and the gathered surge from a storm like Dorian would be extreme. 

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Wonder how low the 3k nam will get 

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24 minutes ago, StatenWX said:

HWRF is insane take this with a huge grain of salt.

FED8F301-A6BC-491E-9182-2D60E6F44A71.png.efbb943e0e5c56559e40247ef1a38edd.png

What a monster! It looks like the ridge to the North is steering Dorian into Florida on the HWRF and GFS. More long-range, it would be interesting to see how the heights to the North (circled in red) behave. On both the GFS Legacy and the new GFS, the Northern ridge weakens enough to allow Dorian to go North some time after landfalling in Florida. However, on the GFS-legacy, the ridge is slower and absent for long enough to let Dorian make serious Northward progress, while on the new GFS the ridge comes in faster and stronger and shunts Dorian to an inland track through GA.  

image.png

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6 minutes ago, Adam said:

Wonder how low the 3k nam will get 

well, that's another story altogether... :D :D 

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Euro corrections, moving up in time to four days now.

49c58db6-6869-489b-b0bb-16a3fe54df10.gif

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Euro is bad news..

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No comment as to why the hell they're out there... 

 

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2 minutes ago, Adam said:

Euro is bad news..

 

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This is actually a fairly similar pattern to 2005. I don't want to say Katrina II, but...

Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 2.33.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 2.33.06 PM.png

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