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CCB!

**Hurricane Dorian Mega Thread**

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1 hour ago, CCB! said:

The 12z UKMET ensemble is a bit concerning. H/t to @ModRisk

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Thank you for posting!! Definitely two main clusters here, one along the same path (approximately) as the NHC most other ensemble guidance, and one right along the coast of Florida. Obviously there are some stragglers, but it’s also interesting to me that these two clusters merge largely offshore of the Carolinas which would seemingly indicate that earlier track adjustments don’t have much impact at that point, and would be governed more by the upstream mid-latitude evolution, which in this run seems to be fairly consistent among the various ensemble members.

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914 extrap. Seems like my earlier thoughts were correct about this thing not gaining much more strength.

 

Unflagged SFMR of 154 kts.

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No secondary wind max on the NW quartile. 

 

We'll know about the SE quartile in several minutes. 

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1 minute ago, Storm Sliders 2 said:

I guess wind corrected it would be 914-13?

Didn't see the wind yet. Just saw the vortex message. 

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Pretty sure next NHC update will take it down a notch, unless and this happens.... they might not want people to say that it's weakening. 

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