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**Hurricane Dorian Mega Thread**

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New HWRF is super west, wonder how N & W Dorian needs to be for NYC to be in TOR potential? I don't think we will see widespread impacts, maybe wind and rain, but there could be isolated / scattered tornadoes even with a pass well S & E 

 

hwrf_ref_05L_23.png

 

Two whole degrees west of 18z position by 72 hrs

 

hwrf_satIR_05L_13.png

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3 hours ago, samsara2 said:

New HWRF is super west, wonder how N & W Dorian needs to be for NYC to be in TOR potential? I don't think we will see widespread impacts, maybe wind and rain, but there could be isolated / scattered tornadoes even with a pass well S & E 

 

hwrf_ref_05L_23.png

 

Two whole degrees west of 18z position by 72 hrs

 

hwrf_satIR_05L_13.png

 

hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_27.png

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The eye is definitely coming back with that Gulf Stream water.

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Dorian fatigue has set in. But, north of FL, into GA and SC especially, residents should remain vigilant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dorian restrengthen back to a high end cat 3 over the next 20-30 hours. What happens next along the SE coast could be quite the news story.

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9 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Dorian fatigue has set in. But, north of FL, into GA and SC especially, residents should remain vigilant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dorian restrengthen back to a high end cat 3 over the next 20-30 hours. What happens next along the SE coast could be quite the news story.

Thanks for this.  Waiting here on the coast south by Wilmington...

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5 minutes ago, wineman01 said:

Thanks for this.  Waiting here on the coast south by Wilmington...

Think up by you he will have begun to weaken again, but one never knows. Stay safe.

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Is Long Island potentially in the loop on any of the long range models for significant rains and or wind?

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6 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Think up by you he will have begun to weaken again, but one never knows. Stay safe.

After Florence I don't seem worried about this one, maybe I'm being naive though 🤷‍♂️

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4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is Long Island potentially in the loop on any of the long range models for significant rains and or wind?

I believe we get our rain from the PRE as most, if not all of Dorians rains miss us. 

 

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15 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Dorian fatigue has set in. But, north of FL, into GA and SC especially, residents should remain vigilant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dorian restrengthen back to a high end cat 3 over the next 20-30 hours. What happens next along the SE coast could be quite the news story.

Charleston to Hilton head will definitely have issues with flooding from rain/storm surge 

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