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Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread


Message added by 33andrain,

The 33andFive...Day Outlook -- Monitor here

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Hey Tom. I did not favor a warm Nov or Dec. I thought the effects of the NPO-induced cold would first start out West in December; and when the NAO eventually relaxes for a time, we would get some warm

The shifted west tropical forcing from traditional Niño, or even Modoki, has created a stronger Subtropical High in western Pacific / Hadley. This has promoted the return of the "Kamchatka Low" which

Back on December 26, composite date for MJO passage at high amplitude in Phase 4 and historic data associated with strong AO+ patterns in combination with a positive EPO implied that the GEFS was miss

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7 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Nice call @PB GFI with the threat window around 12/31. Wonder if a storm around 12/28 sets up something bigger just after the new year? 

 

I think we are going to enter into an active period once past Christmas with multiple threats into early Jan as we see shorter wavelengths under a block. 

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:
OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: December 19, 2019

 

 

 

30-day outlook - Temperature Probability

 

 

 

 

30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability

 

 

Very nice looks like they will have to adjust this then in the 8-14 day. 

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Jasonwx said:

A week or so ago when this Saturday looked good, he said he was taking out his shovel.  Hopefully this time it pans out.

 

Actually, I said it was almost time, not that it was time. It was the same day I said this: 

 

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EPS Weeklies...looks reasonable. Climatology would agree with mid-JAN until classic winter pattern during El Nino winter. Until then we warm then after Christmas enter, not a classic winter pattern but one that can easily produce winter storm threats.

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I will just add one thing,  I just like the multiple wave idea post Christmas..I think the GFS is tilting one of those SWs early so I still think the 28th has a shot. 

 

Lastly watch the SW Christmas night dropping SE.

The models just need to be underestimating that block and that develops off the Delmarva and not LI.

 

It has a shot for a few chance during a less than optimal pattern. 

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20 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I will just add one thing,  I just like the multiple wave idea post Christmas..I think the GFS is tilting one of those SWs early so I still think the 28th has a shot. 

 

Lastly watch the SW Christmas night dropping SE.

The models just need to be underestimating that block and that develops off the Delmarva and not LI.

 

It has a shot for a few chance during a less than optimal pattern. 

 

I just don't like that air mass Christmas night one bit.

I think we're too warm to do anything but rain, although latest trend is a bit cooler, so we'll see.

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