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Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread

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Just now, Catacol said:


Source inside UKMet punting for tight cycle back towards phase 4/5 with no substantive progress into 7. Some positive signs that the end of the month can to be as flat as the current pattern, but much to happen before amplification can kick in properly. Hoping Anthony’s Okhotsk Bowling Ball can deliver something to act alongside next momentum spike. Meanwhile temps here are about average for April...

 

We will fade into 8.

Hang in there.

 

Plus 1.5 p4 Jan 5- 20 get into p9 90% of the time.

 

We are going into 8. 

 

We will speed quicker with the flip because we already have the TPV sitting on the WC 

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Just now, RAllen964 said:


where did u get control? Weather models shows it not being out yet 

 

WB

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8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

We will fade into 8.

Hang in there.

 

Plus 1.5 p4 Jan 5- 20 get into p9 90% of the time.

 

We are going into 8. 

 

We will speed quicker with the flip because we already have the TPV sitting on the WC 

Ha - certainly hope so. The positive follow up to my slightly gloomy post is that the UKMet are not always correct - see Jan into Feb 18 as an excellent recent example, and for that matter Jan/Feb 19 when the constant calls for imminent cold produced one of the mildest February CETs for many a year. In general though they are developing an irritating habit of getting the North Atlantic pattern right.

 

Your North Pacific ridge holds the key that might unlock a - NAO or possibly a Scandy block. Shortening wavelengths into February should help, and for all the disappointment of the last 4 weeks over here the fact remains that solar is low, SSTs are broadly favourable and the QBO has turned, though QBO pre conditions will be much better in 20/21. There is enough here for optimism and it is still only 9th January...

 

But while the MJO doesn’t tell the full story of Pacific forcing I can’t help feeling that if it doesn’t get itself into decent amplitude 7/8 the vortex in its current form is going to remain in charge. Eric’s long post the other night (which was excellent by the way @Webberweather) was massively informative but filled me with caution. No certainty of a progression through and beyond the maritimes...

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Ryan Maue tweeted out this. I feel like it’s a bit misleading due to the extreme warmth in the midrange being heavily weighted in this 30 day avg...

 

 

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9 minutes ago, mRanger48 said:

Ryan Maue tweeted out this. I feel like it’s a bit misleading due to the extreme warmth in the midrange being heavily weighted in this 30 day avg...

 

 

Yea I'm sure the upcoming few shots of positive 15 to 20 2m temp departures have absolutely nothing to do with the 30 day average being skewed lol....

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1 minute ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Yea I'm sure the upcoming few shots of positive 15 to 20 2m temp departures have absolutely nothing to do with the 30 day average being skewed lol....


seriously. Not sure why he would tweet that out without telling the whole story. That same eps flips pretty substantially and his map doesn’t tell the complete story. 🤷‍♂️

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5 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

 

I don't care who he is or what his reputation is, there is NOTHING that shows a very warm February right now.

Keep in mind that is 30 days which start from today and that is added on to the crazy weekend torch

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1 minute ago, JerseyWx86 said:

Keep in mind that is 30 days which start from today and that is added on to the crazy weekend torch


this is exactly what should be captioning his tweet. Incredibly misleading not doing so

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3 minutes ago, JerseyWx86 said:

Keep in mind that is 30 days which start from today and that is added on to the crazy weekend torch

 

So that's not really for February, that's now until 2/9 and two days next weekend will average +20.

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With low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s and highs only in the 30s, today offered a reminder that the calendar now reads "January." The reminder will be fleeting.

 

This afternoon, warmer air had pushed into the Chicago area. As a result, the temperature rose to 50° after a morning low temperature of 23°.

 

That warmer air will begin returning to the Middle Atlantic region overnight. As the warmer air comes northward, temperatures could begin to rise prior to sunrise. This weekend could be particularly warm as temperatures peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England.

 

This outcome is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°.

 

Sunday could see near record to perhaps even record warmth in parts of the region. Daily records for January 12 are:

 

Atlantic City: 67°, 2017

Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018

Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017

New York City: 66°, 2017

Newark: 67°, 2017

Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018

White Plains: 63°, 2017

 

Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month even beyond the coming weekend's exceptional warmth. However, there are growing indications of a pattern change beyond the medium-term.

 

Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. The closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop, possibly with a shot of Arctic air.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

 

The SOI was +7.97 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.209. Through the first 40 days of meteorological winter, the AO has averaged +1.073.

 

The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000.

 

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 17. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

 

On January 8, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.611 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.273.

 

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February.

 

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 82% probability of a warmer than normal January.

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