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Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread

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13 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Feb 15.

 

Just saying. 

May I ask ? You saying what? 
“BIG ONE” 🌨 ❄️ ⛄️ 

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The CFS was the 1st to really send the MJO into p7, the Hovmollers always had it too.

 

 

20200111_105520.jpg.0ca915087eef181e46c6bfbd8f6ada17.jpg

 

The Euro cluster highlighted Green should win that battle.

 

20200111_105415.jpg.d036459b0d9a69c26e537b0f00dffa02.jpg

Future runs will show you a rotation in 8 IMO.

Just give it a few days. 

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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

Hot.

Huge pattern change.  -EPO and -AO could make for a cold and active late January and February.  There’s no reason why we can’t salvage the second half of the winter. 

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18 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The CFS was the 1st to really send the MJO into p7, the Hovmollers always had it too.

 

 

20200111_105520.jpg.0ca915087eef181e46c6bfbd8f6ada17.jpg

 

The Euro cluster highlighted Green should win that battle.

 

20200111_105415.jpg.d036459b0d9a69c26e537b0f00dffa02.jpg

Future runs will show you a rotation in 8 IMO.

Just give it a few days. 

image.gif.00403d84038e3ee65b69795976ddeb24.gifJust to add to what Pb just said

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3 minutes ago, Archerdude44 said:

@PB GFI’s call for this ridge being transient in nature originally ended up being dead on. He did great work handling this period!

Yup. We’re lucky to have him!

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29 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Yup. We’re lucky to have him!

 

Was just about to say you have been spot on over the last 10 days pumping up that winter in no way was dead. 

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Just now, Webberweather said:

 

Yes please, I'll even take table scraps at this point. The 12z GEFS mean is the highest I've ever seen down here for a 2 week forecast.

 

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_SECONUS_hr384.png.2c6a7810e9f051c161bb7d069c3330b9.png

 

 

An active subtropical jet + high-latitude North Pacific blocking (-EPO/-WPO) is the best recipe to crank out southern sliders & it's looking more & more likely that we'll have this in place for the last 10 days of January. Sign me up.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png.1477d673b1c3c69bac83c7372919fd59.png


 

still rooting for you, even though I have a thick skull.  🙄 

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6 minutes ago, Webberweather said:

 

Yes please, I'll even take table scraps at this point. The 12z GEFS mean is the highest I've ever seen down here for a 2 week forecast.

 

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_SECONUS_hr384.png.2c6a7810e9f051c161bb7d069c3330b9.png

 

 

An active subtropical jet + high-latitude North Pacific blocking (-EPO/-WPO) is the best recipe to crank out southern sliders & it's looking more & more likely that we'll have this in place for the last 10 days of January. Sign me up.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png.1477d673b1c3c69bac83c7372919fd59.png

 

You will get more than scraps if we into 8 /1 and the vortex collapses body and soul into the SE.

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This is exactly what we needed to happen to not only snap the pattern back but to have the second half of winter really make up ground like it has in so many years. 

 

In almost every case where winter made a comeback, there was warmth and in many cases, near record to record warmth...just like it is doing now. 

 

PB can explain why this is........he has been Excellent in his analysis. 

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Just so we’re all clear, this mega winter ending torch is now down to 2 days. Today and tomorrow. 60s. Temps are now forecast to be in the 40s all next week with snow on Saturday and 30s. In the end, the warmth is what is transient. And this is why some lengthy step down won’t be necessary to bring winter back.
 

In short, reports of some anomalous torch and potential end of winter have been greatly exaggerated. 

A FRIGGIN MEN!!!!!!!!!!

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1 hour ago, Archerdude44 said:

@PB GFI’s call for this ridge being transient in nature originally ended up being dead on. He did great work handling this period!

NYC has had 1 below normal day in the last 30 or so.  It is a 2 day torch,  but a long stretch of above normal.  

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6 minutes ago, Webberweather said:

This is probably not gonna age well. Bamwx as usual jumping the gun on "winter cancel".

 

bUt tHe sTrAtOsPhErIc pOlAr vOrTeX

 

562343932_ScreenShot2020-01-11at1_47_15PM.png.c2fe54754bb2aff6e28eb04b3d033cd9.png

 

 

But they’ve been awfully quiet lately. Not sure why lol.

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