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Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread

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19 minutes ago, The Weatherhog said:

Looking at the difference between the 2 years it’s not like it’s a 3,000 mile difference. So perhaps it would argue that the mean trough would be more towards the middle of the country allowing the southeast ridge to pop at times? We would more than likely need the nao to remain negative in this event. However, strong blocking and a southeast ridge could create an interesting pattern for the mid Atlantic and northeast provided it’s not a raging se ridge. At quick glance it looks like weatherbell might be leaning that way. 35D82A91-AD14-418E-B7CA-3ADFFC493E9D.jpeg.d6797fdf614223936acdbf76d3e87453.jpeg

That's what I was thinking as well, and I was thinking exactly of the August Wx Bell prelim outlook as well.

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1 hour ago, Bring Back 1962-63 said:

 

Yes I agree.  As I mentioned on here a week ago, after a short pause or set back we would see some large increases during the last few days with several LPs pushing east through north Russia dumping large widespread snowfalls.  If anything, the next few days look like delivering much more significant snowfall with a rapid expanse. I posted the snow charts on the UK and European Discussion thread about 2 hours ago.  That was in response to a comparison with 2014 which another member posted on.  The full post is on this link:  https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1737-the-uk-and-european-weather-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=154061 . One of the charts merits copying here now - a GFS GIF forecast  for the next 7 days:

 

anim_jmw9.gif

 

If this materialises (slight caution with snow forecasts as well as GFS charts!) it will put 2019 near the top of your Eurasian Snow Cover comparative years graph by early next week.  In fact ahead of the snowy 2014 October.

 

I haven't got much time now but (unless I missed it) no one seems to have posted the latest ENSO model consensus forecast published over the weekend:

figure4-1.png

September below for comparison.  

figure4.png

Still very mixed but the consensus is still mostly for neutral to weak Nino-like conditions. Later this week, I will be doing a more comprehensive ENSO update on the Teleconnections thread.  In fact we are planning to give that thread a real boost during the next couple of weeks and, just as we did last year,  there will be some significant posts (from guides through to much more technical),  contributing to an ENSO debate.  We have our group of members who focus more on the atmosphere and ocean/atmosphere with momentum, torques, westerly wind bursts, kelvin waves, MJO etc influences.  I go more from the bottom up in that I have spent more time studying SSTs and particularly sub surface temps and currents as well as the SPO (South Pacific Oscillation).  There has been a stand off between the warmer WPAC and repeated colder surges in the EPAC (btw: this does NOT necessarily mean that we shall see an El Nino Modoki as several members have mentione, although that cannot be ruled out running into next Spring).  We have seen a protracted period with an ocean/atmosphere disconnect  (well over a year now) and it is not at all clear when we might break out of the current feedback loop. This is yet another factor in creating even more variables than usual going into this winter.  I will be examining some of these factors in my next few posts on that thread. Think of the Teleconnections thread as more of a study and ongoing discussion and research thread which seasonal threads like this one can feed off when it's appropriate. I have added a few great new ENSO papers into the Research Portal in the last few weeks (with more to add) and I shall review the most relevant ones on the Tele thread too.  David :)  

 

Love reading your post !! Thanks for sharing. 

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On 10/21/2019 at 9:05 AM, michaeld021 said:

 

What this is telling me, with the warmth being that far west compared to 2014, you can say that there will be a trough in the west and Ridge in the east. Obviously other signs that have factors into that, but if you are just looking at that, it’s not looking good for snow lovers. 

This is absolutely correct. SsT aren’t gospel but it could mean the trough on the west coast and southeast ridge. The geps have that look for the month of November. 

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Look like we get some cool shots at the end of the month and possibly extending into the first week of November. The euro is sticking to limiting the extent of these cool shots in November but any insight into people's opinion on whether these cold shots do in fact play out. I'm thinking even if it does play out warmer weather prevails for the following few weeks into November but anyone think these cool shots could be part of a long term pattern of cool weather? 

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Just to let you know that I've just finished a more comprehensive ENSO update plus a more "in-depth" (literally!) sub surface temperature analysis. It's a long one with loads of charts and links.  I wanted to explain some of the processes and tried to make it as clear as possible to appeal to a wider range of members.  It's on the Teleconnections thread.  Here's a link:

 

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-technical-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=154077  David :) 

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6 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

As I have thought for quite some time, but continue bashing the GFS...

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1186645988397735936

It's the GEFS really, which hasn't been messed with yet.  I think next year it gets an updated to FV-3. The GFS is another story.

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After carefully sorting through analogs, here are the best combinations of them I can find for this upcoming winter. Anyone have any thoughts?

D9A7D303-B052-4B9D-86AC-9BB136BFE646.png

8E09B646-FFBE-46B3-865D-0B9CEEB9005B.png

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17 minutes ago, michaeld021 said:

After carefully sorting through analogs, here are the best combinations of them I can find for this upcoming winter. Anyone have any thoughts?

D9A7D303-B052-4B9D-86AC-9BB136BFE646.png

8E09B646-FFBE-46B3-865D-0B9CEEB9005B.png

3 Ninas, one neutral positive, and 2 moderate to strong Ninos.

You gave no thought at all to ENSO?

 

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2 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

3 Ninas, one neutral positive, and 2 moderate to strong Ninos.

You gave no thought at all to ENSO?

 

I went online and all those years are neutral ENSO.... so now I’m very confused what is happening 

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1 minute ago, michaeld021 said:

I went online and all those years are neutral ENSO.... so now I’m very confused what is happening 

 

Where did you get that from? 

1954-55: weak La Nina

1984-85: moderate La Nina

1985-86: neutral negative

1991-92: strong El Nino

2004-05: weak El Nino

2009-10: mod/strong El Nino

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

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1 minute ago, Analog96 said:

 

Where did you get that from? 

1954-55: weak La Nina

1984-85: moderate La Nina

1985-86: neutral negative

1991-92: strong El Nino

2004-05: weak El Nino

2009-10: mod/strong El Nino

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I see what I did, I entered wrong years into the database looking back at my spread sheet. Thank you for pointing it out 

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