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Snowy Hibbo

Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread

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28 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Still sees ZERO snow to close out the month.

 

1582977600-6eC6zrtQu8E.png

I don't think we need any model guidance to reach that conclusion. This is quite the feb to remember... for all the wrong reasons lol

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Temperatures were falling through the 20s this evening in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The minimum temperature tomorrow morning could fall into the teens in New York City and Philadelphia. Readings in the lower teens and perhaps single digits are likely outside both cities.

 

But then winter's latest effort to take hold will fail again. Warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the second half of February will be warmer than normal overall. During that time, cold shots will likely be of a short duration.

 

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

 

Winter 2019-2020 became the 19th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 14. Mean total snowfall for the 18 prior cases was 12.5" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 39% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 89% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 11% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

 

The SOI was -17.05 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.686.

 

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 22, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

 

On February 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.234 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.122.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

 

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

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Its cold today as well as day 5 and 6 , but the cold doesn't hold.

 

However out to day 13 thru 15 is coast to coast tho.

 

But it's also snowless.

 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-2956000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-2977600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-3064000.png

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This morning was the coldest morning of winter 2019-2020. Both New York City and Philadelphia had minimum temperatures of 14°. Readings outside those cities were even colder. Low temperatures outside New York City and Philadelphia included: Allentown: 10°; Danbury: 6°; Poughkeepsie: 6°; Scranton: 5°; and, White Plains: 9°. Binghamton had a low temperature of -2°.

 

In addition, New York City's high temperature of 30° was that city's lowest high temperature since December 19, 2019 when the high temperature was just 25°. Philadelphia recorded only its second high temperature of 32° or below this winter. Today's 32° high temperature was Philadelphia's lowest maximum temperature since December 19 when the high temperature was 29°.

 

However, as has been the case since the second half of December, the cold will now quickly depart. Moreover, other than transient cold shots, one of which could during the second half of next week, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall.

 

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

 

The SOI was -21.95 today. The last time the SOI fell to -20.00 or below was December 26, 2019 when the SOI was -28.39.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.700.

 

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 23, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

 

On February 14, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.502 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.235.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

 

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

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5 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Its cold today as well as day 5 and 6 , but the cold doesn't hold.

 

However out to day 13 thru 15 is coast to coast tho.

 

But it's also snowless.

 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-2956000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-2977600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-3064000.png

Gfs is similiar.  Some snow would be nice.

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