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Long Range Pattern Drivers & Evolution Thread

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4 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

I find this RMM MJO guidance interesting. The U850 especially.

wh04.total.component.png

We get some westerlies over the dateline for the first time in a long time. 

07D3854B-C9CF-47E1-AEEC-7F09CC0BB625.gif

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On 12/4/2019 at 8:26 AM, PB GFI said:

If you must know why the GFS looks meh 

combphase_noCFSfull.gif

GEFS don’t seem as confident in entering Phase 3.   

834DB7C7-C3CC-4F61-B276-B03423C09D66.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, Jason said:

GEFS don’t seem as confident in entering Phase 3.   

834DB7C7-C3CC-4F61-B276-B03423C09D66.jpeg

 

Looks the Euro and GEFS are starting to agree here. 

 

2 and then into the null.

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

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Remember all the expert talk about how +AO was going to dominate this month? Here's the 0z Euro 10 days of positive heights in the AO region for nearly all 10 days. Just saying :)

#stayhumble

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_fh0-240.gif.6b5f83962ecef816707f269cabbe55fc.gif

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I am sure it has been addressed here before, but what are the thoughts on the JMA and BOM MJO plots in regards to skill in comparison to the other plots? I have been watching the JMA and BOM for several weeks and believe that the JMA plot has been performing quite well, in regards to steadiness on the Western Hemisphere/Africa side, it does seem there is an overall consensus for a run into the COD and then a run towards phase 7 or 8, the BOM looks like it wants to run out to phase 4 or 5, then move around toward 6 with eyes on a run toward 7. I am trying to make a correlation between SOI, MJO, and 500 Mb activity to try to ( I know it may be a futile enterprise, but my analytic side pushes me into ventures like this) make sense of the pattern moving forward. I do know there are other drivers to consider, but this is what I chose to focus on.1590639393_NDJ.MJO_LI(2).jpg.d0aafb117c4d5c3237e909d0f92f2351.jpg

12.7.19.JMA.MJO.JMAN_phase_51m_full.gif

12.7.19.POAMA.BOM.MJO.multiweek_mjo_rt.png

12.7.19.CANM.MJO_phase_20m_full.gif

12.7.19.CFSv2.MJO.CFSO_phase_full.gif

12.7.19.ECMWF.MJO.ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

12.7.19.GEFS.MJO.diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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1 hour ago, Bring Back 1962-63 said:

 

Hi BL74, you did not elaborate on your comment but it is important to read these charts accurately and put what they show into context.  Reading from top to bottom, we have the activity for the past month down to the forecast line (Dec 6th) and then the forecast for the next 7 days below the line.  The warm colours (yellow/red shades) are generally westerly wind anomalies and the cold colours (blues/purple shades) are generally easterly trades. The deep red (pink/white centre) coincided with the peak of the slightly more active phase of the MJO in the 3rd week of Nov and that was centred just west of the dateline (circa 160E-170E). Just prior to that (Nov 16th-20th) it did cross the dateline but that rapidly faded. Overall, the temporary and very weak westerlies are fading and have been predicted to do so  for some time (I posted on it several pages back on this thread).

 

That current small red blob centred at 160E is on the way out.  Note the blues taking over in that region right now.  In fact there is even a bit of purple showing up early next week right on the dateline.  I reported extensively on that tiny red/yellow area further east towards the EPAC (circa 100W-90W) and that is also slowly weakening. 

 

When I reported just 5 days ago, there was a hint that the I/O standing wave was showing signs of weakening and edging eastwards.  We can see that there was a temporary push into it during the first week of Dec with the reds making it to 50E-60E on Dec 3rd.  These too have already faded and retreated and the standing wave is rapidly regaining strength again. In fact some purples are showing up again at  60E-70E early next week.  What is also significant is the spread of the blues right through to the WPAC.  

 

This was generally expected with the MJO in its inactive phase in the Pacific for at least the next 2 weeks. The GWO and GLAAM and FT are all -ve now (as predicted by some of us) and MT will follow suit shortly. The +ve EAMT is purely temporary and it too will weaken during the next few days and looks set to be -ve for at least 2 weeks.   

 

David :)  

Thanks for the update. Not sure about the rest of the east coast but over the past 50 years roughly half of DC’s snowiest winter months have been during -ve GLAAM periods.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bad information about an imminent polar vortex split is circulating on Social Media. Even at the 50 mb level there is no split. Further, a true split happens at more than a single layer of the stratosphere. Not surprisingly, the GEFS forecasts the continuation of a general AO+ regime.

gfs_z50_nh_f240.png

If you read the post the weather outlet I assume you’re talking about is only mentioning that it’s going to be brief. But continue +AO club .

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19 minutes ago, Daniel1 said:

If you read the post the weather outlet I assume you’re talking about is only mentioning that it’s going to be brief. But continue +AO club .

Brah, Don didn’t say anything in his post about the duration of the +AO. It was more of a commentary on the current state of the vortex. The snark is uncalled for. 

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

Brah, Don didn’t say anything in his post about the duration of the +AO. It was more of a commentary on the current state of the vortex. The snark is uncalled for. 

Just wanted to let you know I did donate even though I didn’t get squat down here in lower Bucks County  

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And on the IO state "having" to go away....I agree with Anthony:

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

This pattern coming up did look great.  NAO and AO now look terrible.  Maybe the warm December forecasts are going to be correct. 

What a waste. I knew deep down that somehow December would end up warmer than normal with not much snow chances. Way to change the mood in 24 hours. I look forward to JFM though.

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