Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 1 - Page 123 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 1

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2 minutes ago, Ace said:

 

Baby steps..

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh126_trend.gif.c6658980e2c40b79b4999cc2d68e0ce8.gif

Yep. Still cuts in the end, despite the much more favorable initial setup. The Atlantic is just crap on the GFS during this period. As John noted above...the TPV location is too far west and the Atlantic blocking isn't as potent as on the Euro. A clear nod to the Ukie/Euro out west however.

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8 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Yep. Still cuts in the end, despite the much more favorable initial setup. The Atlantic is just crap on the GFS during this period. As John noted above...the TPV location is too far west and the Atlantic blocking isn't as potent as on the Euro. A clear nod to the Ukie/Euro out west however.

 

 Yeah the differences between the 12z GFS and 0z Euro are still pretty large. GFS has the TPV too far south/involved and the SE Canada low/Greenland ridging is still not ideal. 

 

models-2019121100-f144.500h_anom_na.gif.d4c5f506c1316d342e7aff892ddbbd00.gif

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1 minute ago, Ace said:

 

 Yeah the differences between the 12z GFS and 0z Euro are still pretty large. GFS has the TPV too far south/involved and the SE Canada/Greenland ridging is still not ideal. 

 

models-2019121100-f144.500h_anom_na.gif.d4c5f506c1316d342e7aff892ddbbd00.gif

Hadn't looked at this view...can't believe how wrapped up it is with the PV in the end. Boo. Almost longing for the days when the FV3 would show snow every solution.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel1 said:

@33andrainit still cuts in the bed and the icon is a crap model.

It sure does (see posts above before you call out) and the ICON sure is. Feel free to ignore those posts. Happy day! :) 

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32 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Potent little sucker.

5df113ae2f989.png

Me likes as it crosses over my yard. 

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17 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Next up is the CMC, which showed this at 0z.

 

The 12 CMC looks like the Euro early on with how it is dealing with the PV. Take a look at this comparison between the 0z Euro, 12z CMC, and the 12z GFS. Specifically take a look at NW Canada(ridging more north)  and SE Canada (more prominent low).

 

models-2019121100-f120.500h_anom_na.gif.ebd9ed6656fc458d2e9f32e7e1da1dff.gif

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12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I feel that you have slightly misinterpreted my post. :)

 

I don’t want TPV interaction for the 17-18th threat; I said that I wanted the interaction for the probable shortwave afterwards, as the TPV dropping down could put a nice antecedent airmass into place.

 

I agree with you regarding this system though, we want a vigorous shortwave with little TPV interaction to keep it from getting tugged northward. This could certainly be the case given the ECMWF and its ensembles. I’m leaning towards more interaction than not, but it’s too early to make any definitive statements given the lead time.

I just got 3wned. 

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4 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

5df11d786ad10.png

 

 

I like the track, let me take back the OMG after looking at the surface because that doesn`t leave room to come N for me.

 

However that is a great look for many and beats a cutter to Cleveland.

 

 

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Just now, SnowMapster said:

This is what we want?

 

Yes, we want the wave to remain positively tilted and make it across the Miss then head NE.

 

A center may try and run into WV but a new center could take over near the Delmarva.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

 

5df11dd845f50.png

5df11e0278450.png

 

See edited post. 

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Hmmmm....some adjustments here and there and things could get very interesting.

 

image.png.d226be9e4c7d17d1eca0e3d799a8bd3c.png

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Just now, Snowman11 said:

Cmc pops a weak coastal 

 

We can work with this look

 

379213020_floop-gdps-2019121112.prateptype.conus(1).gif.5317e3dcf1e760c9df064784f92aaa0c.gif

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9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

I like the track, let me take back the OMG after looking at the surface because that doesn`t leave room to come N for me.

 

However that is a great look for many and beats a cutter to Cleveland.

 

 

Unless you’re one of our many posters from Ohio. 🙄

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8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Yes, we want the wave to remain positively tilted and make it across the Miss then head NE.

 

A center may try and run into WV but a new center could take over near the Delmarva.

 

 

 

Like this.

 

The Isobars kinking off the Delmarva look good. 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

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