December 1-2, 2019 -- Winter Storm Discussion and Observations - Page 216 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
brooklynwx99

December 1-2, 2019 -- Winter Storm Discussion and Observations

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5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

A lot of people are saying the radar has been looking improved in recent frames. With respect, they are mistaken. :) 

codnexlab.NEXRAD_DIX_N0Q.20191202_2102.024ani.gif.70157aaac7785f7124e41b3f4a2f4ac5.gif

 

Looks like definite improvements in southern NJ

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3 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:

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Down to light snow here. I’ll take the 2 inches this early in the season. On to the next opportunity 

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This storm was a bust in penna.  And models had it snowing til midnight. It is drying up and fizzling out. Get ready to the east, it is dying. 

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There is some developing precipitation off the NJ coast and some expanding down near Philly. Not sure what it’ll do for the NYC area tho.

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4 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

Solidly in the .25-.5ish range

 

Looks like we are about to be fed by those bands to our NE. @NSFW Weather Guy Am i hallucinating or are those returns near the NY/MA pivoting down this way?

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Just now, snywx said:

 

Looks like we are about to be fed by those bands to our NE. @NSFW Weather Guy Am i hallucinating or are those returns near the NY/MA pivoting down this way?

 

Thats the bands I mentioned before that give us the half moon precip shield, just could t be sure theyd materialize

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Ripping out here still, bands developing to the NE and privoting off the sound. 33.7 and moderate snow, solid coating now, looks great

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1 hour ago, ru848789 said:

Snowfall intensity the last hour has been light to moderate, so only got 1/2" in the last hourd with 2" OTG as of 2:30 pm.  Temp ia at 33F (been bouncing between 32 and 33F, just warm enough for some melting). 

 

The 18Z HRRR only has another 2" for most of CNJ/NNJ so I'm thinking most folks in warning areas aren't going to make it to the 5-8" range predicted for many of us if the model is correct.  I'm at 2" now and 2 more would be 4", which I'd be happy with - of course the HRRR is nowhere near being correct all the time.  Radar really looking ragged though vs. an hour or two ago.  Let's hope this thing cranks back up.  

As of 3:30 pm, still have just 2" OTG, as it's been snowing fairly lightly the last hour and my guess is the snowfall rate was matched by the melting rate for an accumulation rate of zero.  Anyone who thinks this storm looks healthy is delusional: a few hours ago, 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ was under 20 DBZ+ rates, while maybe 1/10th of that area is under that kind of rate.  We may still get pivoting and more snow, but the last few hours have underperformed for most. 

 

On the bright side, at 3:30 pm, while the NWS-Philly dropped the warnings for most of eastern PA, they kept them for Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Sussex, W. Monmouth and Middlesex for 2-4" of additional snow.  They also kept advisories for the tier of counties south of those counties for 1-2" more snow, but dropped all advisories for Philly Metro.  

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I said 2 days ago these upper level lows rarely pan out. NNJ should rejoice, they are about the only ones that overperformed outside if sundays warm air advection snows north of pa. border.

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