December 11, 2019 -- Anafront Snow Event

[33andrain 65,031]

[Henry 1,043]

3 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

And Euro 

 

Models suck.  You would think they would get better as the years go on.

Exactly. 2 days away and still no agreement. 

 

RGEM

GFS

SREF

CMC

 

Are on our side at least but hopefully the Nam is not onto something 

[33andrain 65,031]

So... would you rather have the Euro/NAM or the Ukie/RGEM?

[Rtd208 3,556]

5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The ground will not be that warm, temperatures 24 hours ago were in the low 20s after a week of snow cover in places.

 

This water on the roadways will dry out and the bad air mass in front of Wednesday's system is only about 36 hours long.

 

Also add that you will precip before sun up as temperatures are falling towards 30, I would not focus on the ground being too warm argument.

 

If the impulse comes out you will accumulate.

 

I like how someone mentioned the sun angle. 

[Henry 1,043]

1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

So... would you rather have the Euro/NAM or the Ukie/RGEM?

Good question. Knowing the NAM can do some weird stuff id say the Ukie/RGEM

[PB GFI 42,858]

4 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

So... would you rather have the Euro/NAM or the Ukie/RGEM?

 

GFS / UKIE / CMC 

# 2 , 3 , 4  ( 4  into NYC ) 

 

EURO

vs # 1 (  2 into NYC )

 

Both fit the 2 to 4 but I guess we all want to top cluster to be right.

 

[33andrain 65,031]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

GFS / UKIE / CMC 

# 2 , 3 , 4  ( 4  into NYC ) 

 

EURO

vs # 1 (  2 into NYC )

 

Both fit the 2 to 4 but I guess we all want to top cluster to be right.

 

Respect for sticking with the call. But Central Park still isn’t seeing 2-4”.  

[Henry 1,043]

1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

I will take what I can get 

 

Models cut back big time on the north and western extent of the precip this morning.

Well not all models 

[Weathergun 1,881]

The GFS might be showing too much widespread precip behind the front, with this mid-level dry wedge it has on the soundings in the area on Wednesday AM. I suspect the banding will be more narrow and precip will shut off a little quicker.

[PB GFI 42,858]

7 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Respect for sticking with the call. But Central Park still isn’t seeing 2-4”.  

 

I made the point yesterday,  I should and so should  Western LI.and areas to NYC SW and NE.

 

In fact area from Philly to Boston should ,right up I 95 which where these focus.

 

That's the line,  NYC  LGA JFK don't see those totals for the reasons I posted about ,  that's been  the forecast 

 

 

 

 

[33andrain 65,031]

11 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I made the point yesterday,  I should and so should  Western LI.and areas to NYC SW and NE.

 

In fact area from Philly to Boston should ,right up I 95 which where these focus.

 

That's the line,  NYC  LGA JFK don't see those totals for the reasons I posted about ,  that's been  the forecast 

 

The focus is more likely N&W of 95 imo. But truthfully I don’t see many cracking 4” from this event even up in the hills. We’ll find out soon. 

[PB GFI 42,858]

6 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

The focus is more likely N&W of 95 imo. But truthfully I don’t see many cracking 4” from this event even up in the hills. We’ll find out soon. 

 

Many don't have to crack 4 for 2 to 4 to be applicable.

It's what these storms like to do from Philly to Boston.

NYC LGA JFK probably measure 1 to 2 , but around them will do better. 

[Thundersnow3765 2,669]

4 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

The focus is more likely N&W of 95 imo. But truthfully I don’t see many cracking 4” from this event even up in the hills. We’ll find out soon. 

Yeah this looks like a widespread C-3" locally 4" event to me, there should be persistent dry air advection behind the front preventing more significant qpf and thus preventing more significant snowfall. Cities should have minimal accumulation outside of grassy or typically colder surfaces.

[PB GFI 42,858]

These don't focus to far N and W , the Artcic front is being pushed east as the impulse is riding N.

 

The front is not stationary so I am not sure how far W the heaviest precip gets.

[PB GFI 42,858]

1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

These setups usually favor the coast as we saw with the last few events similiar to this one . The problem for the coast will be temps at the start but once the temps start dropping , some accumulations will occur. 

 

Today will be a big day for modeling.  Wouldn't be shocked to see an uptick in precip amounts. 

 

But I am talking about Monmouth and Nassau vs Brooklyn.

 

I don't like the concrete jungle to do great with these.

 

Think 1 to 2 for you with wet streets

[Oliviajames3 1,322]

HRDPS is also good 

[dmillz25 8,835]

1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

I have done well with these events in the past.

 

Every time there is a storm people think my area will get the lowest with only wet streets.

1-2” on colder surfaces is still 1-2” I wouldn’t mind that happening tbh

[Henry 1,043]

Hopefully the Euro is not onto something, NAM caved to it and euro continues looking bad 

[Crossbowftw3 571]

This wasn't really meant to be a big storm to begin with and to me, the overnight runs seem to be narrowing in closer to a consensus. Even if it means less snow, it's still a consensus. 

[IsaacWxObserver 2,017]

New snow map.