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December 17, 2019 -- Snow/Ice Storm Discussion/Obs


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3 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

‪GFS looks more like euro now, less front end snow due to detached vort inconsistencies between every models, but rain doesn't make it past I84 now generally 

 

impressive  CAD signature on GFS now, we usually see these modeled runs in this timeframe underestimating cold

Disagree that the euro and gfs are similar. The Gfs is the only model that is that light with WAA precipitation. This effects the mid levels greatly down towards the coast 

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3 minutes ago, Weathergun said:

Watch how the blocking over the Davis Strait and ridging over the Rockies has trending stronger since Wednesday.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh162_trend (1).gif

Yep, it’s going towards the euro. Remember when the gfs was phasing the TPV in? Lol 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Disagree that the euro and gfs are similar. The Gfs is the only model that is that light with WAA precipitation. This effects the mid levels greatly down towards the coast 

i'm referring more so to a trend towards a euro type solution, as oppose to the GFS solutions we've seen, no they're not currently similar, but the GFS has trended towards the euro, Gfs rained to albany with 850s surging most of the previous runs, it's slowing down the trail vort... lead vort variable for front end snow is gonna fluctuate, based on the main southern shortwaves trough axes/speed/strength etc

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2 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

i'm referring more so to a trend towards a euro type solution, as oppose to the GFS solutions we've seen, no they're not currently similar, but the GFS has trended towards the euro, Gfs rained to albany with 850s surging most of the previous runs, it's slowing down the trail vort... lead vort variable for front end snow is gonna fluctuate, based on the main southern shortwaves trough axes/speed/strength etc

Gotcha! Sorry for misunderstanding. Let it snow! 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Gotcha! Sorry for misunderstanding. Let it snow! 

 

yea yea, lead WAA is always stronger and faster than modeled, some of this guidance is holding it back a bit too far imo, which is why we see a lot of ice and or dry slitting, we're splitting the stream overhead, we should see lead wave front end thump, colder follow up, it's a classic SWFE

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3 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

 

yea yea, lead WAA is always stronger and faster than modeled, some of this guidance is holding it back a bit too far imo, which is why we see a lot of ice and or dry slitting, we're splitting the stream overhead, we should see lead wave front end thump, colder follow up, it's a classic SWFE

So what's the plan for us inland folk? I'd think 2-4" and .10-.25 (iso .3 or more) ice seems most probable 

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