December 17, 2019 -- Snow/Ice Storm Discussion/Obs - Page 27 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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December 17, 2019 -- Snow/Ice Storm Discussion/Obs

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3 minutes ago, Heavy snow said:

Looks like 84 stays snow. 287 could be in for some major ice accretion. Bedford Ossining up to Yorktown across Into rockland 

If anything good comes out of this.. at least we know schools will most likely have to close across the area for Tuesday! Better to be safe than sorry.

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1 hour ago, WxAlex said:

If anything good comes out of this.. at least we know schools will most likely have to close across the area for Tuesday! Better to be safe than sorry.

Being a vert of 28 years you can almost take this to the bank for NNJ, NW NJ, LHV.

30* freezing rain is worse than 32* freezing rain , 25* -28* yes is the worst but lets not underplay this scenario please like some are doing. .25" of ice is serious for a region that doesn't experience such

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image.thumb.png.c218f5b8ebdfdde6e47da9b84484d5f6.png

Notice where there's a sharp thermal gradient on the 850 map. Right along that boundary is where I think precip initially starts as snow then begins to mix as the 850s gradually move north into tomorrow.

 

I think somebody in northern MD and southern PA will see a few if not several hours of frozen before changeover.

At the surface you can see where the difference between dewpoints from the low 20s to the mid-upper 20s right along the Mason dixon line.

 

As the precip moves in, the temperatures will cool down to the lower 30s for a few hours maybe even down to DC. Right now I'm seeing a coating from D.C to around 2 inches just north of the mason dixon line overnight. HRRR and the NAMs look mostly supportive of this idea.

 

The current radar looks better than currently modeled. I think some sort of a surprise is coming. Areas that are already down to freezing will most likely see several hours of frozen.

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Just now, Jake said:

HRRR is snowy for some with the front end

HRRRNE_prec_snow_034.png.1f67aafd056bae629c4fe55cedebc402.png

Beat me to it. But yet very impressive although probably wrong 

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Just now, wxmd529 said:

Beat me to it. But yet very impressive although probably wrong 

Yep

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1 minute ago, wxmd529 said:

Surprised no one is posting about the nam. A fairly significant cooling at 850 with precip for nyc metro which yields a much snowier front end 

Looks a little RGEM with the ice in south central PA

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So no one is gonna mention the ice on the 00z NAM which looks like RGEM now... Ok I will

A360648A-E2B7-44DB-9A51-986F0828F748.png

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1 minute ago, WxLover said:

So no one is gonna mention the ice on the 00z NAM which looks like RGEM now... Ok I will

A360648A-E2B7-44DB-9A51-986F0828F748.png

Yup like some of our Hudson valley old timers have posted, this is typical SWFE. i84 all snow. I287 Snow to ice 

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Pretty much a perfect snow growth sounding across NNJ on the 0z hrrr... At least for a brief period before the zr/rain. 

download (3).png

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13 minutes ago, Heavy snow said:

Yup like some of our Hudson valley old timers have posted, this is typical SWFE. i84 all snow. I287 Snow to ice 


I think those right along 84 may taint for a period but it’s looking predominately frozen. I still donot see much zr happening around here. Those sheltered valleys in N NJ ( Morris County specifically ) may experience a legit icing event

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9 minutes ago, snywx said:


I think those right along 84 may taint for a period but it’s looking predominately frozen. I still donot see much zr happening around here. Those sheltered valleys in N NJ ( Morris County specifically ) may experience a legit icing event

How much QPF in total for our parts? So like I alluded to earlier, this storm is elevation dependent too?

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