rb924119 3,440 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, 33andrain said: Still quite noticeably flatter at 81 hours. Heights a tick lower downstream. This may just be the GFS correcting back toward the rest of the guidance. Again, this is a case of needing the northern stream to outrun the southern stream to help suppress the height field/increase confluence/keep high pressure locked longer. Will we get it? Weren’t so lucky with this weekend, but maybe second time is the charm. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BL74 1,722 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, Snowkraze said: Ukie? Hard to say with the 24hr H5 maps Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,858 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro is south with the initial WAA. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rb924119 3,440 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Honestly, with high pressure retreating like that off the East Coast, I wouldn’t expect nearly that much, if anything at all. Remember how quickly the warm advection won out with the last system like this - there was pretty much no snow at all. If it retreats from southwest-northeast, you have a chance via the isallobaric/ageostropic component, so long as it’s a strong high and the retreat is slow. When it retreats to the east-northeast or east your chances decrease dramatically because the source region is changing, even if it gets locked in place longer, and, that represents well-established southerly flow well in advance of the system. The former helps to slow the advancement of the warm advection to a degree. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ru848789 5,134 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 There's still hope...the Euro came partway back to where it was 24 hours ago and is much better than 12 hours ago (for the 95 corridor crowd especially). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rb924119 3,440 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 53 minutes ago, ru848789 said: There's still hope...the Euro came partway back to where it was 24 hours ago and is much better than 12 hours ago (for the 95 corridor crowd especially). Honestly, with high pressure retreating like that off the East Coast, I wouldn’t expect nearly that much, if anything at all. Remember how quickly the warm advection won out with the last system like this - there was pretty much no snow at all. If it retreats from southwest-northeast, you have a chance via the isallobaric/ageostropic component, so long as it’s a strong high and the retreat is slow. When it retreats to the east-northeast or east your chances decrease dramatically because the source region is changing, even if it gets locked in place longer, and, that represents well-established southerly flow well in advance of the system. The former helps to slow the advancement of the warm advection to a degree. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,031 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Snowkraze said: Ukie? 5 hours ago, BL74 said: Hard to say with the 24hr H5 maps Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heavy snow 1,427 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 nam starts off everyone as snow, but its super early, brings in precip by 15z monday. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MJOP8 4,244 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Weathergun 1,881 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6z Euro shows snow by Monday evening in the NJ/NYC area. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,031 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, Weathergun said: 6z Euro shows snow by Monday evening in the NJ/NYC area. Wow! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,031 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 And that's not just some light stuff either. That's a full-on thump. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ace 1,329 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, 33andrain said: And that's not just some light stuff either. That's a full-on thump! Could certainly effect the Monday evening commute as well depending on timing. If we can somehow manage a good thump in this setup, that is a definite win. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,031 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Decent amount of support on the 6z EPS as well... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,858 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, 33andrain said: And that's not just some light stuff either. That's a full-on thump. WOW. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,858 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,858 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heavy snow 1,427 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: thumpty dumpty Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,858 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Heavy snow said: thumpty dumpty 3 storms 1/2 way through the month is very nice. 1. 4 2. 2 3. 2 ( Euro / GFS ) 8 total on the coastal plain here in CBJ would be a great for 1st half of December. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heavy snow 1,427 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, PB GFI said: 3 storms 1/2 way through the month is very nice. 1. 4 2. 2 3. 2 ( Euro / GFS ) 8 total on the coastal plain here in CBJ would be a great for 1st half of December. agreed. I am very intrigued with Monday, esp for places northeast of NYC which hold on a tad longer in front end dump situations. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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