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December 17, 2019 -- Snow/Ice Storm Discussion/Obs


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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Still quite noticeably flatter at 81 hours. Heights a tick lower downstream. This may just be the GFS correcting back toward the rest of the guidance.

 

Again, this is a case of needing the northern stream to outrun the southern stream to help suppress the height field/increase confluence/keep high pressure locked longer. Will we get it? Weren’t so lucky with this weekend, but maybe second time is the charm.

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Honestly, with high pressure retreating like that off the East Coast, I wouldn’t expect nearly that much, if anything at all. Remember how quickly the warm advection won out with the last system like this - there was pretty much no snow at all. If it retreats from southwest-northeast, you have a chance via the isallobaric/ageostropic component, so long as it’s a strong high and the retreat is slow. When it retreats to the east-northeast or east your chances decrease dramatically because the source region is changing, even if it gets locked in place longer, and, that represents well-established southerly flow well in advance of the system. The former helps to slow the advancement of the warm advection to a degree.

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53 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

There's still hope...the Euro came partway back to where it was 24 hours ago and is much better than 12 hours ago (for the 95 corridor crowd especially).  

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Honestly, with high pressure retreating like that off the East Coast, I wouldn’t expect nearly that much, if anything at all. Remember how quickly the warm advection won out with the last system like this - there was pretty much no snow at all. If it retreats from southwest-northeast, you have a chance via the isallobaric/ageostropic component, so long as it’s a strong high and the retreat is slow. When it retreats to the east-northeast or east your chances decrease dramatically because the source region is changing, even if it gets locked in place longer, and, that represents well-established southerly flow well in advance of the system. The former helps to slow the advancement of the warm advection to a degree.

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Just now, 33andrain said:

And that's not just some light stuff either. That's a full-on thump!

 

Could certainly effect the Monday evening commute as well depending on timing. If we can somehow manage a good thump in this setup, that is a definite win.

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Just now, Heavy snow said:

thumpty dumpty

 

3 storms 1/2 way through the month is very nice. 

 

1. 4 

2. 2

3. 2 ( Euro / GFS ) 

 

8 total on the coastal plain here in CBJ would be a great for 1st half of December. 

 

 

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Just now, PB GFI said:

 

3 storms 1/2 way through the month is very nice. 

 

1. 4 

2. 2

3. 2 ( Euro / GFS ) 

 

8 total on the coastal plain here in CBJ would be a great for 1st half of December. 

 

 

agreed. I am very intrigued with Monday, esp for places northeast of NYC which hold on a tad longer in front end dump situations. 

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