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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 2


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We have all of these models. Different models have different biases at different times. I was texting with @PB GFI just now and he makes the point that the models get especially finicky with coastal s

Hello all, I thought it is about time I make my first post. I tried to see if there was a specific thread for introductions but couldn't find one. I am from the Philadelphia suburbs. Currently, I am a

High latitude blocking serves to slow and buckle the pattern.  The northern stream should be forced to consolidate in the mean trough.  Additionally, the trough in the Pacific should help pump the hei

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5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

No and why would that matter would that kind of mid level presentation.

 

 

Judah Cohen, (well known for his analogs and write ups of long range forecasting including polar vortex) just tweeted about Euro having a cold air bias. I figured with his credibility and knowledge on long range weather topics that there was some truth to it. 

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard16 said:

Hasn't the Euro had a cold bias this year?

No. The FV3, which became the GFS, has had a cold bias. The cold bias delayed implementation. It should also be noted that the GFS (with the FV3 having been implemented) actually saw a decrease in skill during 2019. That's not a positive development and it may be related to the decision to switch to the FV3. In contrast, the ECMWF saw improved skill. Should the larger skill gap persist, it could raise important questions concerning the decision making behind the FV3 implementation. 

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard16 said:

Judah Cohen, (well known for his analogs and write ups of long range forecasting including polar vortex) just tweeted about Euro having a cold air bias. I figured with his credibility and knowledge on long range weather topics that there was some truth to it. 

 

You mean @snow_cohen ?

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Use the 500 not the snow maps further S

 

Those snow maps are assuming its 35 at the surface.

The mid levels are great as is the track of the ULL.

 

I would look for that to improve, it's only an algo following the soundings. 

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Use the 500 not the snow maps further S

 

Those snow maps are assuming its 35 at the surface.

The mid levels are great as is the track of the ULL.

 

I would look for that to improve, it's only an algo following the soundings. 

PB do you think Philly to nyc can scratch out a 3-6 from wave 1?  Or are you thinking 1-3 best case?

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10 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

PB do you think Philly to nyc can scratch out a 3-6 from wave 1?  Or are you thinking 1-3 best case?

 

Meet in the middle at 2-4”, therefore you’ll be right and won’t be disappointed lol

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24 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

PB do you think Philly to nyc can scratch out a 3-6 from wave 1?  Or are you thinking 1-3 best case?

 

I want to wait until 12z tomorrow and see how / if this continues to progress.

 

I think NYC to Philly could see accumulating snow, I like the ULL a lot.

 

The air mass is the only issue and the boundary will need a little work. 

 

 

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