PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Blizzard16 said: Hasn't the Euro had a cold bias this year? No and why would that matter would that kind of mid level presentation. Link to post Share on other sites
Snowman11 17,812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Blizzard16 said: Hasn't the Euro had a cold bias this year? Never heard that Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 We usually snow with this. Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard16 13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: No and why would that matter would that kind of mid level presentation. Judah Cohen, (well known for his analogs and write ups of long range forecasting including polar vortex) just tweeted about Euro having a cold air bias. I figured with his credibility and knowledge on long range weather topics that there was some truth to it. Link to post Share on other sites
Thundersnow3765 2,669 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, PB GFI said: We are right there. Turn that 36 into 33 and that algo is snow on the coast. Just need a little more UM near the coast and the BL would respond. WOW. Link to post Share on other sites
donsutherland1 6,940 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Blizzard16 said: Hasn't the Euro had a cold bias this year? No. The FV3, which became the GFS, has had a cold bias. The cold bias delayed implementation. It should also be noted that the GFS (with the FV3 having been implemented) actually saw a decrease in skill during 2019. That's not a positive development and it may be related to the decision to switch to the FV3. In contrast, the ECMWF saw improved skill. Should the larger skill gap persist, it could raise important questions concerning the decision making behind the FV3 implementation. Link to post Share on other sites
Snowman11 17,812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Eps is better Link to post Share on other sites
ModRisk 8,001 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Blizzard16 said: Judah Cohen, (well known for his analogs and write ups of long range forecasting including polar vortex) just tweeted about Euro having a cold air bias. I figured with his credibility and knowledge on long range weather topics that there was some truth to it. You mean @snow_cohen ? Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard16 13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, ModRisk said: You mean @snow_cohen ? Yes Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snowman11 said: Eps is better That looks very good. I just think this snows all the way to the M/D line. Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard16 13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: That looks very good. I just think this snows all the way to the M/D line. Are we creating a separate page for this threat? Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Blizzard16 said: Are we creating a separate page for this threat? Up to @33andrain Link to post Share on other sites
ThunderSnow4 81 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 18z euro snowmap? Link to post Share on other sites
MatthewFerreirawx 736 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, ThunderSnow4 said: 18z euro snowmap? Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Use the 500 not the snow maps further S Those snow maps are assuming its 35 at the surface. The mid levels are great as is the track of the ULL. I would look for that to improve, it's only an algo following the soundings. Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Wave # 2 Just needs to sharpen up. Link to post Share on other sites
Oliviajames3 1,322 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Use the 500 not the snow maps further S Those snow maps are assuming its 35 at the surface. The mid levels are great as is the track of the ULL. I would look for that to improve, it's only an algo following the soundings. PB do you think Philly to nyc can scratch out a 3-6 from wave 1? Or are you thinking 1-3 best case? Link to post Share on other sites
Jawz 104 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The main cities have a lot of work to do to get accumulating snow. But just north and west should get some accumulation. Link to post Share on other sites
RAllen964 1,986 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said: PB do you think Philly to nyc can scratch out a 3-6 from wave 1? Or are you thinking 1-3 best case? Meet in the middle at 2-4”, therefore you’ll be right and won’t be disappointed lol Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said: PB do you think Philly to nyc can scratch out a 3-6 from wave 1? Or are you thinking 1-3 best case? I want to wait until 12z tomorrow and see how / if this continues to progress. I think NYC to Philly could see accumulating snow, I like the ULL a lot. The air mass is the only issue and the boundary will need a little work. Link to post Share on other sites
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