Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 3 - Page 45 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 3

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32 minutes ago, RoaDawg said:

The threat for 1/25 on The euro appears it’ll cut up thru the lakes 

500hv.conus.png

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5 minutes ago, Adam said:

500hv.conus.png

Either way with a pattern change the Euro won’t be anywhere near accurate 240 hours out

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38 minutes ago, RoaDawg said:

The threat for 1/25 on The euro appears it’ll cut up thru the lakes 

 Huge positive over HB , that will bowling ball into the OHV 

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17 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

I’m not so sure, PB. Given the progged evolution, there should be significant wave spacing between this system and the one before it. With no evidence of a well-placed 50/50 low (looks much too far south and a bit east, which would fit with the progressive pattern), or any help from the Pacifc wave train that continues to unload system after system into the west coast, based on the orientation of the positive anomalies I see no reason why they wouldn’t try to link to a northward extension of the western Atlantic ridge here. If it DOES bowl under, then I think we ultimately end up with an airmass that is less than ideal, as the cold air source is cut from waves cutting through the weakness between the Canadian positives and the system of interest. I will say, though, that the modeling is looking less and less appealing to me overall for the extended pattern :(

 

 

If you look at the actual pressure pattern the gap is underneath.

Could it sneak through yes, but the EPS likes it off the EC

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-9996800 JAN 14 DAY 12 LOW.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0040000 JAN 12 DAY 12 PLUS 1.png

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

If you look at the actual pressure pattern the gap is underneath.

Could it sneak through yes, but the EPS likes it off the EC

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-9996800 JAN 14 DAY 12 LOW.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-0040000 JAN 12 DAY 12 PLUS 1.png

some of those indies look legit.

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3 minutes ago, RAllen964 said:


Coastal Scrapers - exactly what I think is going to occur and fear. 

 

The vast majority are off the NJ coast and up near the BM , please tell us see that ? 

 

And that`s 12 days away , it`s not meant to be looked at the actual placement of LP. 

 

Did you call for LP over Toronto too ? Cause a few members have a reflection up there.

 

 

 

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We struggle to get the cold air for the 25th. Strong coastal for sure it looks like 

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Just now, Henry said:

We struggle to get the cold air for the 25th. Strong coastal for sure it looks like 

Slow moving miller A with tons of gulf moisture and it rains to the Canadian border on the gfs

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12 minutes ago, Henry said:

We struggle to get the cold air for the 25th. Strong coastal for sure it looks like 

@PB GFI

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8 minutes ago, weathergod said:

 

It's cold from the 20th  - 24th if the ridge coming across Canada on the 25th is real then that system will run into bad midlevels and then the cold returns on the backside.

 

I can't make it snow. 

 

11 days away,  I have no idea if that low goes to Toronto or 500 miles east of the BM.

 

I don't think it cuts, I think that comes under and up the coast. 

 

Whether it's cold enough aloft remains to be seen. 

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1 minute ago, Jack Frost said:

 

Spot on.  The current state of the science only allows - at this point - assessment of the big picture.  That big picture analysis of the players on the field in the long range is all we can ask for until the pieces of the puzzle come more into focus.  That said. how much for Philly? 


Welcome

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Thanks.  And I promise not to post about BAM - at least for tonight....

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