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January 10-11, 2020 — Severe Weather Threat Deep South


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The SHERBE parameter is a decent composite to use in these situations. It's usually a better tool for even more marginal CAPE setups, but it has utility here.     Modified SHERBE

That was a special balloon launch so that is observation.    1) Very stout elevated mixed layer present (700-500mb lapse rate 7.6 C/Km)...alose see it viisually between about 800-550mb

SREF significant tornado and derecho threat Friday afternoon and night.    

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   Mesoscale Discussion 0008
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Far Northeast
   LA...Northwest/West-Central MS...Far Southwest TN

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 101053Z - 101300Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will occur across
   central/eastern AR, far northeast LA, northwest/west-central MS, and
   far southwest TN with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook.

   DISCUSSION...Based on recent guidance, the probability for
   significant wind gusts (i.e. gusts at or above 75 mph) to occur late
   tonight into early Saturday across northeast LA, central/eastern AR,
   far southwest TN, and northwest/west-central MS has increased. This
   increase in probability merits an increase to Moderate Risk, which
   will occur with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. This expanded
   Moderate Risk will include Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN. 

   More details regarding the meteorological conditions will be
   available within the outlook.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

 

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Guidance seems to really be hinting at parts of northeast TX into southeast OK for greatest tornado potential today. Have a boundary around that area too. Given ingredients probably where the best chance for a strong tornado is too. The wind damage threat is looking pretty legit. 

image.png.59cf1094458316ff8c59e408bf65f7e0.png

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4 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

This has room for high risk at 1630 imo. Days ago at this time there wasn't even 750 CAPEs modeled.

 

I completely agree. I think there is room for a high risk here. I thought instability too was under modeled...especially when it became apparent that this EML was going to be legit...was tough to buy a completely dirty warm sector to kick the day off and when you have dews in the 60's to near 70 with mlvl lapse rates > 8...temperature jumps of 1-2F is going to make a huge difference in instability. 

 

This was the 6z NAM Bufkit for DFW at 3:00 PM today...120 J of 3km CAPE :o 

 

image.png.72f64643f167d60c9614628a85009232.png

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

I completely agree. I think there is room for a high risk here. I thought instability too was under modeled...especially when it became apparent that this EML was going to be legit...was tough to buy a completely dirty warm sector to kick the day off and when you have dews in the 60's to near 70 with mlvl lapse rates > 8...temperature jumps of 1-2F is going to make a huge difference in instability. 

 

This was the 6z NAM Bufkit for DFW at 3:00 PM today...120 J of 3km CAPE :o 

 

image.png.72f64643f167d60c9614628a85009232.png

I'd say little doubt of a bust, but when even a bust mode will still be the potential derecho, is it really a bust?

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2 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

I'd say little doubt of a bust, but when even a bust mode will still be the potential derecho, is it really a bust?

 

I feel like with this b/c of the tornado potential even with a line of extensive damage from eastern OK/eastern TX into TN with numerous 65+ knot gusts...but b/c there were only two tornadoes the usual suspects in the social media world would cry bust 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

I feel like with this b/c of the tornado potential even with a line of extensive damage from eastern OK/eastern TX into TN with numerous 65+ knot gusts...but b/c there were only two tornadoes the usual suspects in the social media world would cry bust 

Nonetheless it will be interesting to see what happens with regards to how they do the high risk should we need one. There's about three ways this could go:

 

A. 30% tornadoes 

B. 60% wind 

C. Both 

 

It can go all three ways.

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4 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

Nonetheless it will be interesting to see what happens with regards to how they do the high risk should we need one. There's about three ways this could go:

 

A. 30% tornadoes 

B. 60% wind 

C. Both 

 

It can go all three ways.

 

Given what was stated with the 6z outlook regarding the tornado probs I was shocked (but not shocked after viewing the data) they did the jump...not only to 15% but to include the hatch. I thought the initial 6z outlook would have at least included hatching. 

 

Anyways...I think if the signal for discrete supercells ahead of the main QLCS increases I think we could see a 30% contour...maybe not until 20z though. Probably would want to become very confident exactly where the best overlap of ingredients will be along with radar presentation. I would think there will be a very narrow corridor which is extremely favorable for long-tracked violent tornadoes. 

 

I could see 60% wind probs with the next update...especially if 12z guidance and hi-res guidance continues with the instability boost and signals become even more clear regarding the LLJ. 

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54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north 

 

image.png.96ce0b2fe763a51ad42323fbe227a342.png

 

 

 

 

Seems like an unfortunately memorable event shaping up.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

 

 

 

 

Seems like an unfortunately memorable event shaping up.

 

 

 

Seeing 1500 SBCAPE being modeled as far north as MO with ~1000 MLCAPE is pretty crazy for January. Heck I even think there is potential for severe weather (though more isolated) into southern New England with this system. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north 

 

image.png.96ce0b2fe763a51ad42323fbe227a342.png

high risk incoming later today?

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north 

 

image.png.96ce0b2fe763a51ad42323fbe227a342.png

Wow. Scary look for sure. 

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