Crossbowftw3 571 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The HRRR cooking up a Mid-Mayesque setup https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1215373771131031556?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 This is troublesome to see. This is THE NIGHT BEFORE, mind you Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Logan Giles 1,740 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Weathergun 1,881 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Far Northeast LA...Northwest/West-Central MS...Far Southwest TN Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 101053Z - 101300Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will occur across central/eastern AR, far northeast LA, northwest/west-central MS, and far southwest TN with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...Based on recent guidance, the probability for significant wind gusts (i.e. gusts at or above 75 mph) to occur late tonight into early Saturday across northeast LA, central/eastern AR, far southwest TN, and northwest/west-central MS has increased. This increase in probability merits an increase to Moderate Risk, which will occur with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. This expanded Moderate Risk will include Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN. More details regarding the meteorological conditions will be available within the outlook. ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Guidance seems to really be hinting at parts of northeast TX into southeast OK for greatest tornado potential today. Have a boundary around that area too. Given ingredients probably where the best chance for a strong tornado is too. The wind damage threat is looking pretty legit. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Observed sounding from Dallas...extremely concerning environment here Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Observed sounding from Dallas...extremely concerning environment here This has room for high risk at 1630 imo. Days ago at this time there wasn't even 750 CAPEs modeled. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said: This has room for high risk at 1630 imo. Days ago at this time there wasn't even 750 CAPEs modeled. I completely agree. I think there is room for a high risk here. I thought instability too was under modeled...especially when it became apparent that this EML was going to be legit...was tough to buy a completely dirty warm sector to kick the day off and when you have dews in the 60's to near 70 with mlvl lapse rates > 8...temperature jumps of 1-2F is going to make a huge difference in instability. This was the 6z NAM Bufkit for DFW at 3:00 PM today...120 J of 3km CAPE Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I completely agree. I think there is room for a high risk here. I thought instability too was under modeled...especially when it became apparent that this EML was going to be legit...was tough to buy a completely dirty warm sector to kick the day off and when you have dews in the 60's to near 70 with mlvl lapse rates > 8...temperature jumps of 1-2F is going to make a huge difference in instability. This was the 6z NAM Bufkit for DFW at 3:00 PM today...120 J of 3km CAPE I'd say little doubt of a bust, but when even a bust mode will still be the potential derecho, is it really a bust? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MJOP8 4,244 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 My sister lives out near Dallas. Hopefully nothing too bad happens there. But it doesn’t look good from what I’m seeing in here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said: I'd say little doubt of a bust, but when even a bust mode will still be the potential derecho, is it really a bust? I feel like with this b/c of the tornado potential even with a line of extensive damage from eastern OK/eastern TX into TN with numerous 65+ knot gusts...but b/c there were only two tornadoes the usual suspects in the social media world would cry bust Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I feel like with this b/c of the tornado potential even with a line of extensive damage from eastern OK/eastern TX into TN with numerous 65+ knot gusts...but b/c there were only two tornadoes the usual suspects in the social media world would cry bust Nonetheless it will be interesting to see what happens with regards to how they do the high risk should we need one. There's about three ways this could go: A. 30% tornadoes B. 60% wind C. Both It can go all three ways. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said: Nonetheless it will be interesting to see what happens with regards to how they do the high risk should we need one. There's about three ways this could go: A. 30% tornadoes B. 60% wind C. Both It can go all three ways. Given what was stated with the 6z outlook regarding the tornado probs I was shocked (but not shocked after viewing the data) they did the jump...not only to 15% but to include the hatch. I thought the initial 6z outlook would have at least included hatching. Anyways...I think if the signal for discrete supercells ahead of the main QLCS increases I think we could see a 30% contour...maybe not until 20z though. Probably would want to become very confident exactly where the best overlap of ingredients will be along with radar presentation. I would think there will be a very narrow corridor which is extremely favorable for long-tracked violent tornadoes. I could see 60% wind probs with the next update...especially if 12z guidance and hi-res guidance continues with the instability boost and signals become even more clear regarding the LLJ. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,625 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north Seems like an unfortunately memorable event shaping up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said: Seems like an unfortunately memorable event shaping up. Seeing 1500 SBCAPE being modeled as far north as MO with ~1000 MLCAPE is pretty crazy for January. Heck I even think there is potential for severe weather (though more isolated) into southern New England with this system. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Adam 1,684 Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north high risk incoming later today? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
weatherwiz 79 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Adam said: high risk incoming later today? Certainly is a possibility. Especially if instability overperforms a bit more Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Henry 1,043 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Can't sleep even farther north into southern MO too...especially if they destabilize a bit more which seems very plausible. They are into the slight but wouldn't be surprised to see ENH expanded a bit farther north Wow. Scary look for sure. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Crossbowftw3 571 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 These soundings around and in DFW are growing ever more ominous. At bare minimum an extension of 15%/hatched should extend back to DFW next update Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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