January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
NJwxguy78

January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion

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meh...I'm not excited yet...I guess a little snow to rain is better than 70 degrees and sunny...or is it?...

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1 minute ago, NJwxguy78 said:

@SnowWolf87   please share your thoughts here!

Thanks,

 

They remain largely unchanged from days ago. The EPO ridge closing off helps push the PV into position to swing this thing through. With some ATL side help showing up I think that HP lasts just long enough to produce strong CAD signatures across the NE. I see no reason to think this will wind up vastly different than many other SWFE that have preceded this one.

 

NW of 95 will see a good front end thump changing to a mix changing to rain (Where have we seen this movie on repeat before that it seems like it will shut off before it is pouring rain), and even down to the coast should see an initial period of accumulating snows.

 

NW of I80 IMO remains the obvious best shot at greater accumulations where 4+ inches is quite possible. I believe the Hudson Valley/NEPA/Catskills/and into New England are the favored jackpot areas with this setup.

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@Snowman11 non of this is snow for you or me during this frame 

 

The GFS snow maps are garbage. 

Dps are 33/34 during this time on S flow.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

gfs_T2m_neus_23.png

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How is this a SWFE when a well-defined system comes from the west-northwest? Lol

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2 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

How is this a SWFE when it comes from the west-northwest? Lol

 

gfs_uv250_us_21.png

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This will secondary S of New England and that's too late for us.

 

This is not going to secondary over the Delmarva, it's not what these do without blocking. 

 

Now some can continue to wait for a cat to bark instead of looking at what the last 10 SWFE did over your area without blocking and just averaging them.

 

Clippers thump along I80.

-EPO lows off OBX go to the BM

SWFE dont like to produce 3 inches right along the coastal plain. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Thanks,

 

They remain largely unchanged from days ago. The EPO ridge closing off helps push the PV into position to swing this thing through. With some ATL side help showing up I think that HP lasts just long enough to produce strong CAD signatures across the NE. I see no reason to think this will wind up vastly different than many other SWFE that have preceded this one.

 

NW of 95 will see a good front end thump changing to a mix changing to rain (Where have we seen this movie on repeat before that it seems like it will shut off before it is pouring rain), and even down to the coast should see an initial period of accumulating snows.

 

NW of I80 IMO remains the obvious best shot at greater accumulations where 4+ inches is quite possible. I believe the Hudson Valley/NEPA/Catskills/and into New England are the favored jackpot areas with this setup.



“NW of 95 will see a good front end thump changing to a mix changing to rain (Where have we seen this movie on repeat before that it seems like it will shut off before it is pouring rain), and even down to the coast should see an initial period of accumulating snows.”

 

Couldn’t agree more.

 

 

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Far inland areas look to do very well with this.  I’d love an inch or two!  

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8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

@Snowman11 non of this is snow for you or me during this frame 

 

The GFS snow maps are garbage. 

Dps are 33/34 during this time on S flow.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

gfs_T2m_neus_23.png

The CAD is pretty impressive. We just need the precip to rush in when temps are around freezing.

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

This will secondary S of New England and that's too late for us.

 

This is not going to secondary over the Delmarva, it's not what these do without blocking. 

 

Now some can continue to wait for a cat to bark instead of looking at what the last 10 SWFE did over your area without blocking and just averaging them.

 

Clippers thump along I80.

-EPO lows off OBX go to the BM

SWFE dont like to produce 3 inches right along the coastal plain. 

 

I have gotten 3 to 6 from many SWFE before.

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This looks like a pretty substantial hit for at least interior New England. I would also think there will be a zone of rather significant icing possible. Obviously too far out to pin down additional details but where it stays all snow totals could be pretty significant. One thing for certain is this system looks like it will have a tremendous amount of moisture...one thing to watch is whether this is convectively active across the southeast which ends up robbing some of the moisture. There also may be a pretty mean dry slot somewhere.

 

That's a rather impressive vort being modeled with an extremely impressive jet max which develops south of southern New England. Whatever the outcome this is going to be quite the dynamic system. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

 

gfs_uv250_us_21.png

Ok? But your energy isn’t oringinating from the southern stream in AZ. It’s a remnant circulation of a mid-latitude system that cut across the CONUS which then interacts with northern stream energy late. A SWFE has energy ejecting out of the southern stream riding the thermal gradient, which is not what this is.

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Just now, rb924119 said:

Ok? But your energy isn’t oringinating from the southern stream in AZ. It’s a remnant circulation of a mid-latitude system that cut across the CONUS which then interacts with northern stream energy late. A SWFE has energy ejecting out of the southern stream riding the thermal gradient, which is not what this is.


 

technical schmechnical 

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3 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

Ok? But your energy isn’t oringinating from the southern stream in AZ. It’s a remnant circulation of a mid-latitude system that cut across the CONUS which then interacts with northern stream energy late. A SWFE has energy ejecting out of the southern stream riding the thermal gradient, which is not what this is.

 

What would you call it then? It sure as hell isn't a clipper.

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Just now, rb924119 said:

Ok? But your energy isn’t oringinating from the southern stream in AZ. It’s a remnant circulation of a mid-latitude system that cut across the CONUS which then interacts with northern stream energy late. A SWFE has energy ejecting out of the southern stream riding the thermal gradient, which is not what this is.

Agreed to a certain extent yes, it is a Nrn branch system per se however the Srn Jet is injecting into it from the SW and the entire flow is coming SW to NE. 

 

Trace it back to here and look at the moisture and energy ejecting into it courtesy of SW flow around the ridge and it ridea up from the 4 corners to the GL. That is exactly a SWFE.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

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4 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

 

I have gotten 3 to 6 from many SWFE before.

It just depends on how long the cold air holds in place. 

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