January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion - Page 34 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
NJwxguy78

January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion

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I will gladly take the potential 2-3" of snow that the models are printing out for here tomorrow. Anything more then that will just be a bonus. 

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I'll take the 3-6" event up here in Sullivan and RUN with it. This still won't be a major storm under any regards but I'll take what would technically be, our first all snow, snow event of the winter.

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6 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

Thank you! This event probably doubles my seasonal total.

That isn't saying much, but any snow is good snow.  And it will probably snow pretty hard for a few hours.  As a side note, where is everyone who told me there was no way it could snow in my area because we're getting south winds?

Basic knowledge of synoptic meteorology said it was going to snow the whole time.

I know a low tracking to the west and southerly winds are not exactly what you like for snow.

But we're going to be in the teens Saturday morning, with dew points below zero, and precipitation starting a few hours later.

Unless the southerly winds are 20-40 MPH, you have no time to advect enough warm air to not allow it to snow.

It was also obvious that the low wasn't going to strengthen into the 980s.

Two things did not support that.  First, the overall pattern has not been for such amplification this season.

Secondly, the big high to the north actually limits intensification of the low pressure system.

Nature corrects itself.  You don't have, for example, a 940 low next to a 1050 high, because nature would destroy herself like that.

Anyway, certain people owe me an apology, especially @snywx.  

I'd like to personally thank you for belittling me the way you did earlier in this thread.

It actually makes me feel really good right now. 
Carry on!

Very clearly remember this debate if I remember there were more than one person going against you, and while I agree with you, let's let the clock run down before the final drive here lol.

 

But good stuff with this storm, looks like you got it right 👍🌨️.

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2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Very clearly remember this debate if I remember there were more than one person going against you, and while I agree with you, let's let the clock run down before the final drive here lol.

 

But good stuff with this storm, looks like you got it right 👍🌨️.

It was most of the forum, and it was also a pretty easy forecast.  I didn't even see many challenges making this one.
I really didn't understand it at all.

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Just now, Analog96 said:

It was most of the forum, and it was also a pretty easy forecast.  I didn't even see many challenges making this one.
I really didn't understand it at all.

I believe me and you have had almost the same exact forecast since Sunday lmao. While I will wait to see what actually transpires...job well done my friend.

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3 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

I believe me and you have had almost the same exact forecast since Sunday lmao. While I will wait to see what actually transpires...job well done my friend.

Mine never changed either. 

 

Easiest storm this winter probably...a solid 12 hour window for all to get their 1-3/3-6 (can't see 6+ unless elevation >1500 feet) and then quickly shutting off. 

Enough time to get out and shovel Sunday morning, in time for football in the afternoon.

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Just now, 33andrain said:

Can you please hash this out through the PM system? Sincerely, everyone else who just wants to weather.

 

It was only the one post I made.  I just think it was fair that I got a chance to do that.  I'm not going to go on about it.

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3 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

Mine never changed either. 

 

Easiest storm this winter probably...a solid 12 hour window for all to get their 1-3/3-6 (can't see 6+ unless elevation >1500 feet) and then quickly shutting off. 

Enough time to get out and shovel Sunday morning, in time for football in the afternoon.

I still think 6 plus may be a tough pull. To be certain not for a lack of cold air but a lack of precip actually. Some elevations may have some enhanced lift and may squeeze close to that mark like you allude to(Catskills/Blue ridge) but I believe it to be the exception rather than the norm.

 

Edit: Oh and for sure those unmentionables in NNE! Haha!

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1 minute ago, SnowWolf87 said:

I still think 6 plus may be a tough pull. To be certain not for a lack of cold air but a lack of precip actually. Some elevations may have some enhanced lift and may squeeze close to that mark like you allude to(Catskills/Blue ridge) but I believe it to be the exception rather than the norm.

 

Yeah, I think you're going to need elevation to pull of six inches. 

There's just not enough QPF.

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3 minutes ago, Rob Lightbown said:


YES!!!  I've been forecasting local weather for way, way too many years to count & I still find everyday weather interesting (even 33 with rain...lol).  

So, while we are "ONLY" going to see a 3 to 6 inch snowfall from this upcoming storm, the interesting part to me is that most, if not all of it will fall in about a 6 hour time window.  So, 1/2" to 1" per hour snow rates likely.  

I very rarely find Northeast US weather boring. 
 

 

This, if it's boring, wait a day!

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On a side note I just went from near 6 on the Nam to an inch....

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3 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

I still think 6 plus may be a tough pull. To be certain not for a lack of cold air but a lack of precip actually. Some elevations may have some enhanced lift and may squeeze close to that mark like you allude to(Catskills/Blue ridge) but I believe it to be the exception rather than the norm.

 

Edit: Oh and for sure those unmentionables in NNE! Haha!

Or the areas where the lake effect band's set up once this storm exits, but in many ways that's its own seperate entity.

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1 minute ago, Analog96 said:

 

This, if it's boring, wait a day!

Even last weekend's sunshine with 70 degree temperature was wild & interesting, especially seeing my dogwood tree & hydrangeas start to bud!!  

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1 minute ago, Rob Lightbown said:

Even last weekend's sunshine with 70 degree temperature was wild & interesting, especially seeing my dogwood tree & hydrangeas start to bud!!  

I had a graupel squall yesterday!

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6 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

On a side note I just went from near 6 on the Nam to an inch....

That was awful for anyone south of like 78.  Long island went up though for those posters.

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26 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

I'll take the 3-6" event up here in Sullivan and RUN with it. This still won't be a major storm under any regards but I'll take what would technically be, our first all snow, snow event of the winter.

agreed

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1 minute ago, Jasonwx said:

That was awful for anyone south of like 78.  Long island went up though for those posters.

 

5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

I had a graupel squall yesterday!

So did i, but it was more like a mix of everything. Could be the nam being the nam. We'll see. @NJwxguy78 I like a line from bastardi: enjoy the weather, its the only weather you have!

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