January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion - Page 44 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
NJwxguy78

January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion

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It looks like some precipitation is starting to break out on radar across the area, it may take a bit before we actually start to see anything hitting the ground but it shouldn't be to much longer.

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like some precipitation is starting to break out on radar across the area, it may take a bit before we actually start to see anything hitting the ground but it shouldn't be to much longer.

latest HRRR keeps CNJ unsaturated through 11am

download (1).png

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Anyone have the Euro 6z snow map?  Not storm vista.  Want to see PA?

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Looks like considerably more convective activity from LA to TN in reality compared to the most recent HRRR. I've noticed that model solutions with warmer mid-levels for this afternoon were coupled to stronger convection over the MS and OH Valley this morning. Basically the stronger and more organized these storms are, the stronger the southeasterly LLJ flow at H8 out ahead of the cold front. Correspondingly the farther N it punches up into the mid Atlantic and taints ratios or flips to sleet. I think today is pretty sleety across NJ. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_1.png

southmissvly.gif

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17 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

Anyone have the Euro 6z snow map?  Not storm vista.  Want to see PA?

 

5B488FFE-A305-4BB4-A6BC-8C917F620CF0.png

DDF488FA-0E2D-4416-8916-5FCD7F05391E.png

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12 minutes ago, FlemingtonPhil said:

Looks like considerably more convective activity from LA to TN in reality compared to the most recent HRRR. I've noticed that model solutions with warmer mid-levels for this afternoon were coupled to stronger convection over the MS and OH Valley this morning. Basically the stronger and more organized these storms are, the stronger the southeasterly LLJ flow at H8 out ahead of the cold front. Correspondingly the farther N it punches up into the mid Atlantic and taints ratios or flips to sleet. I think today is pretty sleety across NJ. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_1.png

southmissvly.gif

You're in good company as the esteemed Walt Drag has also been postulating that the sleet risk goes all the way up to his neck of the woods in far northern Sussex and the 84 corridor.  Could make for a much less aesthetically pleasing event if much of the snow falls as sleet, although I'll always take sleet over rain (same impact on driving and removal, based on total mass, although not the same visibility impact).  

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Initial band moving through, the void in precipitation over southwestern PA looks like it may be trying to fill it.

24° w/snow here in Silver Spring Township, Cumberland County, PA.

20200118_081552.jpg

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2 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

You're in good company as the esteemed Walt Drag has also been postulating that the sleet risk goes all the way up to his neck of the woods in far northern Sussex and the 84 corridor.  Could make for a much less aesthetically pleasing event if much of the snow falls as sleet, although I'll always take sleet over rain (same impact on driving and removal, based on total mass, although not the same visibility impact).  

 

Usually, with these systems, I worry a lot about sleet.

I'm not so sure this time.  Thicknesses are low.  That's old-school, but it's a good way to see if there's a sneaky warm layer in there.

Also, we're starting with the mid-levels so cold.

From a modeling standpoint, the only model that aggressive with the sleet is the NAM.

Two years ago, I'd trust it.  But given its track record lately, it's hard to take anything the NAM prints out seriously.

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