January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion - Page 45 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
NJwxguy78

January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion

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Just now, Qtown Snow said:

RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2WINTER_ANI.gif

Looking pretty good!

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8 hours ago, CCB! said:

Colette dropping in! 

I’ve been here reading since beginning of season. Lol. Hoping for a good 4 inches here in NY. 

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11 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

 

Usually, with these systems, I worry a lot about sleet.

I'm not so sure this time.  Thicknesses are low.  That's old-school, but it's a good way to see if there's a sneaky warm layer in there.

Also, we're starting with the mid-levels so cold.

From a modeling standpoint, the only model that aggressive with the sleet is the NAM.

Two years ago, I'd trust it.  But given its track record lately, it's hard to take anything the NAM prints out seriously.

Hope you're right - the suspense is killing me, as always, lol - that's why this hobby is so fascinating...

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21/6

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DP last night was -7 and is now -3.  13 degrees.  Coldddd!   Bring it on!! 

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5 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Hrrr really gave up on this one hmmm...

Is everyone worried about this and that the NAM looks like the current observations or will the other models win out? 

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6 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Hrrr really gave up on this one hmmm...

What do you mean?

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1st hit quickly  getting closer, won't last long

 

RAD_MOS_STATE_PA_L2NCR_ANI.gif

RAD_KDIX_N0R_ANI (1).gif

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7 minutes ago, SnowMapster said:

Is everyone worried about this and that the NAM looks like the current observations or will the other models win out? 

I'm worried that the meso models drastically cut NJ back yes but regardless falls in line with my thoughts anyway albeit the lower end of the range. 

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At 8:40 am, an area of snow was pushing eastward across central Pennsylvania. Recently, Bradford was reporting heavy snow with a temperature of 18°. As the morning progresses, the snow will move into eastern Pennsylvania. During the early afternoon, snow will begin to break out in the greater New York Metro area. For now, the storm remains on track to bring a general 2"-4" snow to such locations as Newark, New York City, and Bridgeport. Scranton, Binghamton, and Albany still appear to be in line for 3"-6" snow.

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13 minutes ago, SnowMapster said:

Is everyone worried about this and that the NAM looks like the current observations or will the other models win out? 

I'm past which model will win out, it's about nowcasting at this point. If your area busts, be happy for those that don't.

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3 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

I'm past which model will win out, it's about nowcasting at this point. If your area busts, be happy for those that don't.

Never!!!

 

Jk

 

Maybe

 

I dont know

 

I get snow jealousy!

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Things still look well in line as I thought they would. Still the general 3-6 I've been going with all week, with my area likely favoring the lower end of that spectrum (3-4") compared to areas to my north of elevation (>1500 feet, 5-6" iso up to 8")

 

Snow in by lunchtime, largely over by dinner, out by bedtime 

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13 minutes ago, SnowWolf87 said:

I'm worried that the meso models drastically cut NJ back yes but regardless falls in line with my thoughts anyway albeit the lower end of the range. 

Could that be the HRRR warm bias in the mid range or to it cut back precip?

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23 / 5 

I am expecting 3 here in Colts Neck.

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The NAMs are warming things up here too quick. 

 

I am not on board with that solution 

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