Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4 - Page 101 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4

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Worse than banter - the Global Warming, er, we mean Climate Change, hey wait, after this winter, Global Warming thread.  Yawn....

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22 hours ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Interesting comments on the rainy vs severe days. This could be quite true if we look at and assume a continuance of the strong WAR, higher dews and fronts running into it would slow down and train off a SW flow but possibly that same buoyancy could produce some capping issues or marine layers. So yes quite the catch 22 here we see.

 

As far as the BDCF's I think I maintain that they could be mitigated by a stronger WAR/Se Ridge thanks to the anomalously warm SSTS. In theory I see warm fronts being able to advect further north much more easily because the flow over top of them is already in a warmer state, typically the flow ahead of a Nwrd advancing WF in our area is onshore E or ENE flow. 

 

I do see the conundrum you are speaking of here though and it is a highly intriguing thermodynamic discussion.

I agree with you on the expected failure of the BECFs to make headway further south, especially given the pre-conditioning of a lack of ambient cold air to date coming into the warm season. I was simply posing questions.....I love intellectual/hypothetical discussions, and given the status of things and the general relevance to the thread, didn’t see the harm haha

 

And, for the record, I’m not a big thunderstorm guy. I understand them, but I’ll be honest and say that I don’t really forecast for them or really enjoy it, so my skill is pretty minimal. Again, was mainly posing further questions for our hypothetical discussion with a little opinion thrown in lol so there’s a good chance you’re on the right track, as I assume you’ve been much more observant than I have of loading patterns and their eventual effects.

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For all of you who want snow, NAM is keeping the hopes alive 

C332AB56-1F95-4DAA-8D5C-7774E6BE60C1.png

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17 minutes ago, michaeld021 said:

For all of you who want snow, NAM is keeping the hopes alive 

C332AB56-1F95-4DAA-8D5C-7774E6BE60C1.png

Really nice hit for the interior 

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20 minutes ago, michaeld021 said:

For all of you who want snow, NAM is keeping the hopes alive 

C332AB56-1F95-4DAA-8D5C-7774E6BE60C1.png


yea...the nam also showed 20” of snow on the Carolina coastal plain over the weekend....a max of 4” over Mount Mitchell later it never verified  

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5 minutes ago, RoaDawg said:


yea...the nam also showed 20” of snow on the Carolina coastal plain over the weekend....a max of 4” over Mount Mitchell later it never verified  

If you or anyone was expecting 20in of snow on the Carolina costal plain, that is stupid of you. Never will happen. 

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4 minutes ago, michaeld021 said:

If you or anyone was expecting 20in of snow on the Carolina costal plain, that is stupid of you. Never will happen. 

But the snow map said so! Lol

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50 minutes ago, michaeld021 said:

For all of you who want snow, NAM is keeping the hopes alive 

C332AB56-1F95-4DAA-8D5C-7774E6BE60C1.png

 

The interior (i.e., BGM, AVP, etc.) should be ok for some frozen precipitation.

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Not quite sure where this belongs, but the most famous "mountain" in NJ and the most hiked destination in NJ is on fire.  Looks like 70+ acres.  Sounded like it started on the Red Dot trail, which means human caused almost certainly.  Really stinks.

 

https://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/2020/02/24/delaware-water-gap-fire-mount-tammany-nj/4855265002/

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1 hour ago, michaeld021 said:

For all of you who want snow, NAM is keeping the hopes alive 

C332AB56-1F95-4DAA-8D5C-7774E6BE60C1.png

Why such a difference?

1712328290_ref1km_ptype.conus(4).png.0b41a15bc7c3424b98012f8a0508f34d.png

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3 hours ago, Rygar said:

Not quite sure where this belongs, but the most famous "mountain" in NJ and the most hiked destination in NJ is on fire.  Looks like 70+ acres.  Sounded like it started on the Red Dot trail, which means human caused almost certainly.  Really stinks.

 

https://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/2020/02/24/delaware-water-gap-fire-mount-tammany-nj/4855265002/

Ahh. Thanks for posting this! A group of us at work were wondering why so much smog today. This is from Jersey City facing west. 

FC7B7D74-3376-4BF9-BA70-CC73AF1B7793.jpeg

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28 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Why such a difference?

1712328290_ref1km_ptype.conus(4).png.0b41a15bc7c3424b98012f8a0508f34d.png

Gfs is also jumping on board for interior areas.

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Well....I guess I’ll see you guys next year for the start of the next winter season.  I don’t see any chances of storms on the horizon. 

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5 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Ahh. Thanks for posting this! A group of us at work were wondering why so much smog today. This is from Jersey City facing west. 

FC7B7D74-3376-4BF9-BA70-CC73AF1B7793.jpeg

Noticed that too when I was driving on 95 today 

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I wouldn’t quit just yet. Feb.29 to March 2nd is a good chance to see something develop as high pressure is building in with cold air driving down pretty far south. After March 5th mild air returns.

 

I think we can all say the last few winters we seen some nice March snowstorms. 

 

let’s see what happens after these next 2 cold rain soakers on the coast pass.

 


 

 

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2 hours ago, RoaDawg said:

Well....I guess I’ll see you guys next year for the start of the next winter season.  I don’t see any chances of storms on the horizon. 

Stay for the summer

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

We stay for T storm / severe , Tors and Hurricane tracking.

 

Winter is only one part of this community.

 

We will all be here.

 

And dont forget baseball 

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20 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

And dont forget baseball 


This is the year right?

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