Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4 - Page 16 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
brooklynwx99

Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4

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I like that last frame... throwing back CCB all the way to Philly.  That stuff is colder and higher ratio snow.

 

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LOL rain in Morris County and snow in Staten Island! Sure!

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5 minutes ago, Jack Sillin said:

spitballing here... I wonder if the rapid zonal flow into BC on Thursday is actually the reason the GFS ends up a hit. Need to get that disturbance from the NEPAC into the Lakes ASAP, which is a lot harder if it has to ride over a ridge. Counterintuitive, but maybe true?

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh96_trend.gif

In a pattern not typically conducive for coastal snows, atypical features like that can be your friend :) - The flattened ridge/reduced angular momentum can ironically "help" in the right scenario.

 

To posters wondering what this means... No, I'm not saying there should be a -PNA, it just a matter of fine details. You still want a western ridge, but too robust in this setup with meager Atlantic help & you could wind up with a whole different evolution. 

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1 minute ago, RAllen964 said:

Again folks. Avoid taking surface depiction verbatim at this point. The thermals on GFS from this range are not correct. 
 

Watch your 500mb til Tuesday - then you can start to work you’re way lower in the atmosphere 

meaning you think it will be colder?

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I want to see the next frame.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Cmc

5e2dbf04b89e7.png


next frame should be insane 

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Just now, MatthewFerreirawx said:

792041673_ScreenShot2020-01-26at11_37_47AM.png.44ae57c1083380d6db0c4ba209dabd79.png

 

OMG that CCB 

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2 minutes ago, SnowMapster said:

meaning you think it will be colder?


At this point, it’s undetermined. There is waffling of features that make or break the storm location, and thus your cold features. @Jack Sillin post from last night illustrates that well. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

792041673_ScreenShot2020-01-26at11_37_47AM.png.44ae57c1083380d6db0c4ba209dabd79.png



wow 

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Can't wait to see the first Mother Of God pic of the winter.  I know it's too soon.

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