CCB! 35,172 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, djdude2122 said: Then what causes it to miss us wide right? The flow aloft is just too progressive on that run. We're five to six days out, there will be an ebb & flow on hits/misses etc. Hang in there. Link to post Share on other sites
Rtd208 3,504 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 This to me has all the makings of a major storm for us. The model discrepancies at this range etc, where have we seen this before? The details on this "should" start becoming much clearer by Wednesday. Link to post Share on other sites
ModRisk 8,005 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, CCB! said: That was my primary takeaway... The bulk of the board here goes from being on the left side of a marginal jet streak, to almost being in the right entrance region of a majorly juiced up streak. The amplification adjustment is a good sign. Yup. This is a better run with a worse result. The event would have a higher ceiling with that type of look. Progressive flow kills us this run but still exciting to see the amplification. Link to post Share on other sites
ModRisk 8,005 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, CCB! said: Tbh, it's negligible. Right now it's hard to say exactly what kind of standard deviation you'd want to see. More zonal at the peak of the PNA ridge might ironically allow the northern stream disturbance to enter the flow faster & allow for a quicker, but dirtier phase. Contrarily, a steeper ridge may allow for ideal amplification for a higher ceiling event... (too much/too little of either could lead to less desirable solutions too) it's too early to say. - For now, #wetrack. Good post Link to post Share on other sites
uofmiami 2,591 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Recon possibly coming up to help these models with the pacific for 29/00Z runs. Tuesday night model runs. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 261550 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1050 AM EST SUN 26 JANUARY 2020 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JANUARY 2020 WSPOD NUMBER.....19-057 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: TWO USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. $$ SAG NNNN Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post Superstorm93 24,592 Posted January 27, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 27, 2020 UKIE was pretty close to something big as well Get that to phase in and you'll have a sub 980 bomb near the Delmarva Link to post Share on other sites
swamplover56 4,913 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Euro update when it comes in would be appreciated Link to post Share on other sites
Mriceyman 2,103 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Anyone up? Link to post Share on other sites
Rtd208 3,504 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Apparently the Euro was a miss but it was close, can anyone else confirm? Link to post Share on other sites
Mriceyman 2,103 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Apparently the Euro was a miss but it was close, can anyone else confirm? Close is fine Link to post Share on other sites
HVSNOWSTORM 76 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Link to post Share on other sites
Mriceyman 2,103 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, Khayyam said: Is that a 963?? Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Last three runs of the EPS. Inching closer. Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I’ll just drop these in here. Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post Jack Sillin 6,117 Posted January 27, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 27, 2020 ECMWF deterministic is wide right, but seriously check out what happens after it roars into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Its diabatic outflow jet is so strong it puts up a giant Greenland block! Moreover, the immense poleward and upward heat fluxes from that type of event may be enough to split the stratospheric PV (in tandem with the building Alaskan ridge Any of the long range specialists feel free to tell me this is bs, but I'm starting to think there may be a big silver lining if this misses Link to post Share on other sites
Event Horizon 1,547 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, Jack Sillin said: ECMWF deterministic is wide right, but seriously check out what happens after it roars into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Its diabatic outflow jet is so strong it puts up a giant Greenland block! Moreover, the immense poleward and upward heat fluxes from that type of event may be enough to split the stratospheric PV (in tandem with the building Alaskan ridge Any of the long range specialists feel free to tell me this is bs, but I'm starting to think there may be a big silver lining if this misses So the February 1st storm missing might actually prove useful for Mid February and beyond? That sounds great. Link to post Share on other sites
Weathergun 1,881 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The 6z GFS ensemble members are more intense with the Feb 1st storm offshore and CWB/Greenblock developing afterwards. Link to post Share on other sites
Rtd208 3,504 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Weathergun said: The 6z GFS ensemble members are more intense with the Feb 1st storm offshore and CWB/Greenblock developing afterwards. Well if this misses maybe this will be the storm that reshuffles the pattern to something better for us. While there are not certainties this storm will be a hit for us I think we are in the timeframe where the models are losing the storm and will adjust back closer to the coast but that will probably take at least a few model runs before that happens. We'll see. Link to post Share on other sites
Jack Sillin 6,117 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 here's a trend in EPS guidance you probably weren't looking for, but is certainly encouraging Link to post Share on other sites
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