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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4


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2 minutes ago, djdude2122 said:

Then what causes it to miss us wide right? 

The flow aloft is just too progressive on that run. We're five to six days out, there will be an ebb & flow on hits/misses etc. Hang in there. 

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This to me has all the makings of a major storm for us. The model discrepancies at this range etc, where have we seen this before? The details on this "should" start becoming much clearer by Wednesday. 

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21 minutes ago, CCB! said:

That was my primary takeaway... The bulk of the board here goes from being on the left side of a marginal jet streak, to almost being in the right entrance region of a majorly juiced up streak. The amplification adjustment is a good sign.

 

Yup.  This is a better run with a worse result.  The event would have a higher ceiling with that type of look.  Progressive flow kills us this run but still exciting to see the amplification.

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29 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Tbh, it's negligible. Right now it's hard to say exactly what kind of standard deviation you'd want to see. More zonal at the peak of the PNA ridge might ironically allow the northern stream disturbance to enter the flow faster & allow for a quicker, but dirtier phase. Contrarily, a steeper ridge may allow for ideal amplification for a higher ceiling event... (too much/too little of either could lead to less desirable solutions too) it's too early to say. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️- For now, #wetrack. 

 

Good post

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Recon possibly coming up to help these models with the pacific for 29/00Z runs. Tuesday night model runs. 
 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261550
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EST SUN 26 JANUARY 2020
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JANUARY 2020
         WSPOD NUMBER.....19-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: TWO USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       MAY FLY CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
       AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
SAG

NNNN
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16 minutes ago, Jack Sillin said:

ECMWF deterministic is wide right, but seriously check out what happens after it roars into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Its diabatic outflow jet is so strong it puts up a giant Greenland block!

508607192_9-kmECMWFGlobalPressureNorthAmericaPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.a1d3100db5ca76ed3ef2574bfa90d8a7.gif

Moreover, the immense poleward and upward heat fluxes from that type of event may be enough to split the stratospheric PV (in tandem with the building Alaskan ridge

ecmwf_z50_anom_nh_240.png.3a17418c630e247ffbbb0129d2d09415.png

Any of the long range specialists feel free to tell me this is bs, but I'm starting to think there may be a big silver lining if this misses

 

So the February 1st storm missing might actually prove useful for Mid February and beyond? That sounds great. 

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1 minute ago, Weathergun said:

The 6z GFS ensemble members are more intense with the Feb 1st storm offshore and CWB/Greenblock developing afterwards.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-0677200.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-0925600.png

Well if this misses maybe this will be the storm that reshuffles the pattern to something better for us. While there are not certainties this storm will be a hit for us I think we are in the timeframe where the models are losing the storm and will adjust back closer to the coast but that will probably take at least a few model runs before that happens. We'll see.

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