Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4 - Page 41 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4

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4 minutes ago, Heavy snow said:

I know but that was sort of expected by you and many other greats, ya know? So my expectations were kept in check but I was hopeful for feb N March so that’s an entire new level of let down 


many other “greats” as you call them thought January would rock. You can find their posts archived here. 

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6 minutes ago, Psv said:


many other “greats” as you call them thought January would rock. You can find their posts archived here. 

 

Not me, Feb was my month. 

 

Not looking so hot tho.

 

Dec and Jan I had AN , but def not plus 5.

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7 minutes ago, Psv said:


many other “greats” as you call them thought January would rock. You can find their posts archived here. 

ISO,  PB, tams, snowy all called for nothing until February. maybe Jan 20 some thought we would start but all four of those guys tossed winter until atleast Jan 20. 

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This was always forecast to be a back loaded winter.

 

And if Feb fails, the idea fails.

 

No question.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

This was always forecast to be a back loaded winter.

 

And if Feb fails, the idea fails.

 

No question.

 

 

 

Has the feel of a winter, when we get a massive March snowstorm. I'm not saying February is lost, but at the moment I personally don't see that zonal flow backing off for February and it's ashame considering we have the southern stream in firehose mode. 

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29 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Not me, Feb was my month. 

 

Not looking so hot tho.

 

Dec and Jan I had AN , but def not plus 5.

NYC only projected to finished +5?  Thought we are running +6 to +7

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8 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

NYC only projected to finished +5?  Thought we are running +6 to +7

NYC is between +6 and +8F as of 1/28

MonthTDeptNY.png

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58 minutes ago, NorEaster27 said:

NYC only projected to finished +5?  Thought we are running +6 to +7

 

49 minutes ago, Thundersnow3765 said:

NYC is between +6 and +8F as of 1/28

MonthTDeptNY.png

As @donsutherland1 points out daily, NYC is on track to finish 9th warmest on record. 

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Hey guys can anyone provide me with the link to view the long range ukmet model. Thanks

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8 minutes ago, Daniel1 said:

Hey guys can anyone provide me with the link to view the long range ukmet model. Thanks

The UKMET goes out to 144 hours. Here's a link: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=ndfd_sfctmax&r=conus

 

This link will provide a closer view that includes the greater Toronto area: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020013000&fh=12&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sfct&m=ukmet

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11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The UKMET goes out to 144 hours. Here's a link: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=ndfd_sfctmax&r=conus

 

This link will provide a closer view that includes the greater Toronto area: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020013000&fh=12&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sfct&m=ukmet

There’s another website that gives access out to 192 hours I believe 

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13 hours ago, mbaer1970 said:

Has the feel of a winter, when we get a massive March snowstorm. I'm not saying February is lost, but at the moment I personally don't see that zonal flow backing off for February and it's ashame considering we have the southern stream in firehose mode. 


I beg to differ.  I think there’s a few good storm chances that are not zonal. 

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1 hour ago, Daniel1 said:

There’s another website that gives access out to 192 hours I believe 

I don't think that's correct.

 

The UK Met Office describes the global model as going out to 6 days:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

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13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't think that's correct.

 

The UK Met Office describes the global model as going out to 6 days:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

It goes out to 168 hrs on this site:

 

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

 

Never seen it go out past 7 days on any other site.

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4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

It goes out to 168 hrs on this site:

 

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

 

Never seen it go out past 7 days on any other site.

Thanks.

 

That's interesting, as the UK Met Office doesn't mention the 168-hour timeframe.

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You know winter is over when people are debating how far the UKIE goes out in the "weather threats" thread.

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12 minutes ago, Psv said:

You know winter is over when people are debating how far the UKIE goes out in the "weather threats" thread.

 

F58219A1-4B34-4825-9C21-B1C5388BD2B0.gif

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I still like this period 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

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