Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4 - Page 47 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
brooklynwx99

Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4

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26 minutes ago, Henry said:

Watch next run be a ton of rainstorms lol 

It will.

 

1602518301_tenor(5).gif.53abb37711b6c769aa430c31f4489e7c.gif

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1 hour ago, Henry said:

That is true. And the gfs likes to do a lot of fantasy things. But hey it’s fun to look at :) 


crazy cold bias as explained repeatedly by @donsutherland1

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The Euro is colder than the GFS with this wave.

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-0979600-1.png

gfs-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-0979600.png

gfs-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-0958000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-0958000.png

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Loving the look of the 12z runs for just NW95  Hoping we can hold till midweek 🤞

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1 hour ago, Henry said:

Watch next run be a ton of rainstorms lol 

 

We definitely have a shot with the end of week threats , but as the ridges shifts west to over Alaska, modeling has been consistent on a Western trough/Eastern ridge pattern in the long range. The 12z GFS shows different waves of Atlantic/Polar ridging/blocking popping up in the long range which counters the Western trough. Safe to say its on its own and should not be taken seriously unless it gets more support.

 

1894935708_gfs_z500a_nhem_fh180-384(1).gif.37d700403bd2dd55f4f698936e088275.gif

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The Euro is much warmer with the 2nd wave. 

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1055200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1055200.png

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We have had better setup this year and they proved warm. Same here . This is not a setup for much frozen except upstate and New England again

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5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The Euro is much warmer with the 2nd wave. 

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1055200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1055200.png

This seems colder than 0z.

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6 minutes ago, Jawz said:

Euro very warm. Oh well

For which wave ? Its colder for many areas for wave 1.

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This most likely is counting freezing rain and mix precip.

5e35c5b4baa09.png

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Given the coming MJO and the teleconnections. I'd watch of course, but Id sell on any big system big cold enough for snow. Need to keep things weak in this pattern to have a realistic shot. Even that maybe a stretch.

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The Euro sees the day 7 GFS wave. 

 

Feb 7 / 8 storm.

 

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1184800-1.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1184800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1206400.png

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You know you have to go very far north for actual snow. Most freezing rain signal will be just plain rain. 

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4 minutes ago, Jawz said:

You know you have to go very far north for actual snow. Most freezing rain signal will be just plain rain. 

 

What ?

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype-1001200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-t925-1001200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-t850-1001200.png

20200201_135106.png

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Past albany. A few icicles on trees and mailboxes south of that. Maybe the 9th will work out.

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4 minutes ago, Jawz said:

Past albany. A few icicles on trees and mailboxes south of that. Maybe the 9th will work out.

 

We are not talking about your forecast here.

You said you have to go very far N and that's not what the Euro showed.

 

If youre going to comment on a model run you're going to be asked to back up your analysis.

If your forecast is that this ends up N in the guidance in the coming days thats fine.

But back that up too.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jawz said:

Past albany. A few icicles on trees and mailboxes south of that. Maybe the 9th will work out.

Past Albany for what ? The freezing line is just north of NYC.

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3 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Past Albany for what ? The freezing line is just north of NYC.

Snow 

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