Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4 - Page 92 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Wx Threats on the Horizon: 5-15 Day Outlook -- Part 4

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13 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Here comes another fake day 8 Euro snowstorm 

 

1582783200-4sc3oPPNgu4.png

Do you think it is possible atall for the boston area? Cmc and eps like it 

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Just now, Henry said:

Do you think it is possible atall for the boston area? Cmc and eps like it 

 

8 days away mate.

 

It could do anything at this distance. 

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3 minutes ago, Jake Stofman said:

This isn’t a bad look at all. Biggest problem it’s 8 days out 

598CE552-D635-4D13-9101-F8B62CF42F3B.png

EAD2A750-CA1A-4709-AF1B-ABBAABF32D14.png

 

It`s just the surface.

Mid 30`s.

 

1 , It`s 8 days away , so it`s not really worth over-analyzing. 

2 . A bad BL has fit the winter so I would be cautious. 

It`s - 3 at 850 

1582804800-8ztAjr8duHM.png

 

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12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

8 days away mate.

 

It could do anything at this distance. 

Cmc and gfs are pretty similiar . Still 8 days out.

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Just now, PB GFI said:

1582804800-I4qKXkzkH0o.png

Finally the arctic floodgates open even if its brief

 

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Just now, Snowman11 said:

Finally the arctic floodgates open even if its brief

 

 

It`s not Arctic at all.

 

You are AN at 192 and that`s why you will rain 

 

1582804800-rlbpqtUwWOU.png

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Just now, PB GFI said:

 

It`s not Arctic at all.

 

You are AN at 192 and that`s why you will rain 

 

1582804800-rlbpqtUwWOU.png

I'm talking about after. Way too far to worry about track and temps.

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3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

1582804800-I4qKXkzkH0o.png

All the cold is behind any potential system...

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Just now, Snowman11 said:

I'm talking about after. Way too far to worry about track and temps.

That's been the case with any storm this year, cold comes in after the storm. Classic windshield wiper this year.

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Just now, SnowWolf87 said:

All the cold is behind any potential system...

 

THIS X 10000 

 

I just said that to someone. 

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1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

I'm talking about after. Way too far to worry about track and temps.

 

Like I said this morning, you will be cold and dry and warm up when LP arrives.

 

What good does a few dry BN days after another rainstorm man.

 

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2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

8 days away mate.

 

It could do anything at this distance. 

 

Probably the best snow threat potential we'll have for awhile and maybe until next winter. After this potential 8 day threat, the Pacific looks terrible in the long range with a raging zonal jet.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh222-384.gif.6ff06af5ff8bfc466b03208fe1d845cb.gif

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43 minutes ago, Ace said:

 

Probably the best snow threat potential we'll have for awhile and maybe until next winter. After this potential 8 day threat, the Pacific looks terrible in the long range with a raging zonal jet.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh222-384.gif.6ff06af5ff8bfc466b03208fe1d845cb.gif

 

I am not sure it's a real threat yet.

 

Look at that ridge axis south of the Aleutians,  that feature has been there since Dec 20th.

 

It's a small window with a marginal airmass if it doesnt end up cutting.

 

And I don't mean to be so negative here but I can't get invested here

 

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Another short period of cold is overspreading the region. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns.

 

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

 

A snowfall will likely affect parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia tomorrow into Friday. Likely accumulations include: Greenville, NC: 3"-6"; Norfolk: 2"-4"; Raleigh: 2"-4"; and, Wilmington: 1" or less.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

 

The SOI was -15.75 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.347. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.891 from 1989.

 

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 27, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

 

On February 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.815 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.883.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°.

 

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

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10 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

I am not sure it's a real threat yet.

 

Look at that ridge axis south of the Aleutians,  that feature has been there since Dec 20th.

 

It's a small window with a marginal airmass if it doesnt end up cutting.

 

And I don't mean to be so negative here but I can't get invested here

 

 

 

Sorry guys.

 

When there's nothing but LP in Canada these will cut.

 

That has always been the idea and that's what the EPS sees.

 

Just not sure how anyone continues to get duped with this stuff.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-2761600.png

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45 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

Sorry guys.

 

When there's nothing but LP in Canada these will cut.

 

That has always been the idea and that's what the EPS sees.

 

Just not sure how anyone continues to get duped with this stuff.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-2761600.png

Worst winter ever

 

It's insane how nothing is working out.  I have never saw a winter like this before.

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