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Hot Topic in Science: 2019-nCoV: Coronavirus Outbreak 2020

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Fyi, worldometers's numbers for the USA have been jumping around today.  They are significantly down in the lastest update. 

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2 minutes ago, ModRisk said:

Fyi, worldometers's numbers for the USA have been jumping around today.  They are significantly down in the lastest update. 

Wonder if they were hacked again

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1 hour ago, SnowWolf87 said:

Wow stark assessment from Cuomo saying 40 to 80 percent of NYers will get the virus over the next 9 months.

 

Acknowledging they are just trying to spread that out instead of all at once.

 

And it's no surprise after he toured NYC yesterday and said you would never know anything was going on with how densely packed parks and rec areas were.

 

See my long post on Cuomo's presser from earlier today (below), including a ton of data he showed (great job by Cuomo, by the way).  I also talked about the 40-80% thing.  Lots of disagreement in the medical community on whether "everyone" will get it (40-80% is kind of like everyone, when it's a novel virus never seen on earth before) or just a subset.  The Diamond Princess, which had no quarantine for 11+ days and had everyone in close quarters/communal eating, only had 17% of the 3700 passengers test positive (all were tested).  Some believe that there could be natural immunity out there.  Will try to find the post/link I had on that from several days ago. 

 

Also those 40-80% numbers assume no interventions (social distancing/quarantining of positives and contacts of positives) and with enough interventions even an R0 of 2-3 (number of people an infected person is likely to infect without any interventions) can be reduced below 1, causing the outbreak to fizzle out, as we've seen in China/SK/Taiwan etc. - that's why many have called for at least 75% of people to stay at home (if R0 is 3, then multiplying that by 0.25 gives an "effective" R0 of 0.75 if only 25% of people are in contact with each other). 

 

The "risk" of controlling the outbreak at a level where only 0.1% or so of the population becomes infected (like China et al), is that means 99.9% are not infected and flare-ups will almost certainly occur, which could spur future cycles of distancing/quarantines.  But at least in the future, countries would then have an infrastructure for aggressive testing, tracking, quarantining, treatment (hopefully), and would also have much more capacity of medical supplies/beds/docs etc. to deal with flare-ups.  

 

 

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We had the first case of COVID-19 announced in our town yesterday. 

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Drove back to cobleskill today, 87 was a ghost town only people I saw were Quebec natives hauling back to Canada. 

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Despite bright sunshine and temperatures in the lower and middle 40s, playgrounds in many parts of the New York City region were empty.

 

Larchmont-March-22-2020.jpg

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite bright sunshine and temperatures in the lower and middle 40s, playgrounds in many parts of the New York City region were empty.

 

 

Larchmont-March-22-2020.jpg

This is literally out of a sci-fi movie.  Man.  Stay safe DS.

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28 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

This is literally out of a sci-fi movie.  Man.  Stay safe DS.

Has anyone here ever watched "The Stand?" It is the first think I thought of when I saw China do what they were doing back in December. 

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Just now, USCG RS said:

Has anyone here ever watched "The Stand?" It is the first think I thought of when I saw China do what they were doing back in December. 

read it. loved it. 

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Just1 man's opinion, he's entitled I guess.

 

 

Keyboardist for Bon Jovi.

Lives around the corner from me.

 

 

Screenshot_20200322-173746_Messages.jpg

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23 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Just1 man's opinion, he's entitled I guess.

 

 

Keyboardist for Bon Jovi.

Lives around the corner from me.

 

 

Screenshot_20200322-173746_Messages.jpg

Wow I was so in love with him back in the day!

 

Be good humans. This is the way.

giphy.gif

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4 minutes ago, jen said:

Wow I was so in love with him back in the day!

 

Be good humans. This is the way.

giphy.gif

 

 

We were at my friend's 50th and he sang 7 songs, he's got a better voice than John lol

 

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7 minutes ago, jen said:

Wow I was so in love with him back in the day!

 

Be good humans. This is the way.

giphy.gif

Met him many times (Jon). Amazing guy!  His dad was a member at the golf club I was an assistant pro at (Bamm Hollow no longer there). 

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31 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Just1 man's opinion, he's entitled I guess.

 

 

Keyboardist for Bon Jovi.

Lives around the corner from me.

 

 

Screenshot_20200322-173746_Messages.jpg

 

This is going to be the experience of most people who catch this, it's good to hear stories besides the worst cases that the media focuses in on. The last thing you want is people who don't have severe symptoms rushing to the emergency room thinking they're about to stop breathing.

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36 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Has anyone here ever watched "The Stand?" It is the first think I thought of when I saw China do what they were doing back in December. 


I still like the “after Armageddon” History Channel special.  Starts with a strange new flu originating in Asia. Ends with civilization being set back a couple hundred years. 
 

It is a must-watch.

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2 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

Met him many times (Jon). Amazing guy!  His dad was a member at the golf club I was an assistant pro at (Bamm Hollow no longer there). 

Ive heard great things about him, namely his restaurants. Ive seen them in concert many, many times haha. I once had a seat 4 seats away from where he sang in the crowd. 

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Mercy to LA, expected to get underway in a week. 

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The Javits center will become a 1,000 bed Hospital.

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1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

The Javits center will become a 1,000 bed Hospital.

 

Good idea. The more beds, the better.

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